Friday, January 30, 2004

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The Trippi post-mortems

We had really geared up for what we thought was going to be a front runner's campaign. It's not going to be a front-runner's campaign. It's going to be a long war of attrition. What we need is decision making that's centralized. (emphasis added)

That's Howard Dean quoted in the New York Times story on Joe Trippi's resignation. The piece also observes that Dean only has enough cash on hand for another week of campaigning.

For more on the Trippi angle, go see Noam Scheiber's exercise in self-criticism.

Three thoughts on that quote:

1) If you're John Kerry you're feeling very, very happy right now. Kerry has co-opted a lot of Dean's message without Dean's baggage, leaving the Good Doctor little to do but sound like he's declaring war on the Democratic Party. The best thing for Kerry is to have Dean continue to make statements like this.

2) If you're John Kerry you're feeling slightly ambivalent about the long haul. On the one hand, as Scheiber puts it:

[T]he perfect stormers probably scared off a significant number of Iowans, who took one look at their nose-rings and their died hair and decided that they had nothing to talk about.

On the other hand, Kerry will need those voters in battleground states come November, especially if the South doesn't matter. Will Deaniacs retreat from the system as if their candidate flames out? Or will they go and vote for Kerry?

3) The Feiler Faster Thesis strikes again!! In the span of a month, Howard Dean has gone from looking like William Jennings Bryan to..... Harold Stassen. [So he's gone from looking like a three-time loser to an eight-time loser!--ed.]

posted by Dan on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM




Comments:

I guess the good news for JFK Minor is that a lot of the Deaniacs are mad at the press or mad at Gephardt more than they are mad at Kerry. The bad news is that they think him contemptible - but then, so do many of his supporters.

posted by: Crank on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



“I DON'T FEEL SORRY FOR JOE TRIPPI ANYMORE: Taegan Goddard finds a report that Trippi got up to a 15% commission on Dean's ad buys. Can this be right? I'm in the wrong business -- I could lose two states, spend $40 million, and walk away a millionaire as well as anybody else! Sheesh.”

---Instapundit

Joe Trippi may have conned the Howard Dean campaign. There are rumors that he walked away a millionaire. Did he run the campaign in Dean’s best interest, or to line his pockets? Was greed the reason he approved so many TV ads that seemed senseless? The former Vermont governor can make a come back, but that’s only true if he has enough money to hold on.

I still expect John Kerry to stumble on his way to the Democrat Convention. He simply has to much mealy mouth baggage to explain. But Dean may not be able to benefit if he’s almost broke. Who is the true beneficiary? That’s easy to answer---President George W. Bush. The odds are increasing in his favor. After all, his greatest threat was Senator Joseph Lieberman, and he’s basically toast.

posted by: David Thomson on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



As a nosering-less Deaniac without dyed hair, I think Harold Stassen comparisons are extreme. I mean, this is his first Presidential campaign, and there have only been two primaries. Even if he stays in this one after a point where he has no chance, he would not rise to that level. That said, I agree with Crank above. "Deaniacs" are not some strange breed of alien. And keep in mind the "Perfect Stormers" (a self-selected sample of Dean supporters) amounted to about 4000 people, which is usually not enough to win a single state even if they all lived in the same one. Even if the most activist campaign people are anti-Kerry fanatics, and most claim to be ABB, there aren't enough to make a difference.

posted by: Brian Ulrich on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



Enough cash on hand for another week of compaigning? After all the reports about his swimming in the cash he raised via the internet?! Maybe he spent too much trying to get the message out about how fiscally responsible he'll be.

posted by: Barry on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



How will it play, once attention focuses on Kerry's character issues, that the man wears a toupee, appears to have had Botox, has quite possibly had other plastic surgery like a chin tuck earlier? The Weekly Standard has picked up on only part of this!! And following Dan's example, I've lamented on my site that I'm not getting results.

posted by: John Bruce on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



We should never forget that John Kerry is intensely disliked by those liberals who know him best. He’s currently benefiting from the tacit agreement among the “mainstream” media: “Try not to say anything bad about Senator Kerry. We all know that he is a scum bag---but he’s our scum bag!” Very soon the liberal journalists will go for his jugular.

posted by: David Thomson on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



What fascinates me on the whole Dean business is that we seem to have the political campaign equivalent of Enron or Parmalat. What happened to the money? I'd love to know.

Further thoughts on this issue are here:

http://www.danconley.com/archives/000181.htm

I wonder whether the press is going to persue a "where did the money go" approach to Dean. If I were a Deaniac right now who gave money and time, I meet be feeling a bit betrayed, given the rumors that Trippi was taken a 15% comission on ads placed. (Oldman? Thoughts?)

Funny -- the campaign thought to be one that harnessed the power of the internet is going the way of many an internet startup.

posted by: appalled moderate on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



Any idea that Joe Lieberman could carry the country against Bush is bizarre. He's just incapable of generating any enthusiasm.

I suspect that what some Republicans mean when they say "Joe Lieberman is the only one that has a chance" is "I might consider myself voting for Lieberman". But they wouldn't really vote for him, since his domestic policies are rather more liberal than Bush's and he offers no national security advantage.

So what do they really mean? My guess is "I would like Lieberman to beat the anti-war and anti-Bush candidates". If that were to happen it would provide firm proof that the country approved of Bush's foreign and national security policies and the Iraq war. It won't, though.

posted by: tdent on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



“But they wouldn't really vote for him, since his domestic policies are rather more liberal than Bush's and he offers no national security advantage.”

A President Joseph Lieberman would have to deal with a Republican controlled congress. He wouldn’t stand a chance of passing any domestic legislation without their approval. He is also Jewish---and that would send a strong message to the Muslim extremists concerning our resolve to defeat them.

posted by: David Thomson on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



How can you look like an 8 time loser before you even lose once?

posted by: anon on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



Answer - when you shriek like a banshee at the full moon

posted by: Elliot Fladen on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



Answer - when you shriek like a banshee at the full moon
The media finally got around to admitting this was an artifact of directional miking.

Leaving aside Sen. Lieberman's policy incompatibilities with the Democratic primary voters, we have already see him in campaign action against Bush/Cheney, and you will recall the results were unimpressive. More here, especially the two first essays, which I believe are at the bottom. (Link via Hesiod.)

posted by: Andrew J. Lazarus on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



"Will Deaniacs retreat from the system as if their candidate flames out? Or will they go and vote for Kerry?"

They don't vote (in any significant numbers) anyway. Therefore that age group doesn't matter (political fact not personal quality judgement).

Kerry appeals most to the people who do vote. So long as he appears to be the "most electable" he will take votes from the other candidates, likely even regardless of his views.

posted by: steve on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



Has anyone noticed that Botox is a WMD: botulinus toxin?
And that it can be lethal if misused? Do we want a President on Botox?

posted by: Joe Peden on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



The media finally got around to admitting this was an artifact of directional miking.

The directional miking forced Howard to make a noise like a strangled cat? Methinks not, unless one of the directional mikes was accidentally forced into one of his orifices in the nether regions.

Besides, it got him days of press coverage he wouldn't have gotten otherwise--and while there is such a thing as bad press, it sure beats virtually no press. "Loser in Iowa makes weird noises" plays better and longer than "Loser in Iowa makes calm speech" - ask anyone about Joementum for proof.

posted by: Chris Lawrence on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



What would you get if Joe Trippi went into business with Linda Tripp to start a new HMO program to care for uninsured dropouts of the 1960's?

A Tripp-Trippi Hippie HIP

posted by: Geoff Rich on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]



As a nosering-less Deaniac without dyed hair, I think Harold Stassen comparisons are extreme. I mean, this is his first Presidential campaign, and there have only been two primaries. Even if he stays in this one after a point where he has no chance, he would not rise to that level. That said, I agree with Crank above. "Deaniacs" are not some strange breed of alien. And keep in mind the "Perfect Stormers" (a self-selected sample of Dean supporters) amounted to about 4000 people, which is usually not enough to win a single state even if they all lived in the same one. Even if the most activist campaign people are anti-Kerry fanatics, and most claim to be ABB, there aren't enough to make a difference.

posted by: government grants on 01.30.04 at 10:35 AM [permalink]






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