Monday, March 8, 2004

previous entry | main | next entry | TrackBack (1)


Kenneth Rogoff tests the Nixon analogy

Last month I wrote:

More and more, Bush reminds me of Nixon. He's not afraid to make the bold move in foreign policy. On domestic policy, Bush seems like he'll say or do anything, so long as it advances his short-term political advantage. If Karl Rove thought imposing wage and price controls would win Pennsylvania and Michigan for Bush, you'd see an Executive Order within 24 hours.

Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard -- and chief economist at the IMF from 2001 to 2003 -- has an amusing article in Foreign Policy on whether, when it comes to spending, Bush really is as bad as Nixon when it comes to domestic spending. His conclusion -- "Overall winner: Nixon—although Bush has eight months left."

He also makes the point that compared to the rest of the world, U.S. presidents seeking re-election are misers:

U.S. presidents are hardly the only or the best practitioners of electoral economics. Mexico, for example, boasts a history of political business cycles that make the United States look fiscally Puritan. Mexican Presidents José López Portillo in 1982 and Carlos Salinas de Gortari in 1994 set benchmarks that few have surpassed. Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin gave away the country’s natural resource base (under the guise of “privatization”) to ensure his reelection in 1996, a problem the country is still painfully sorting through today. In Italy, every prime minister seems to produce a fiscal splurge come election time—and Italy has a lot of elections. But then, a country does not achieve one of the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratios (more than 100 percent) without effort.

Go read the whole thing -- it's a nice primer on the political business cycle.

posted by Dan on 03.08.04 at 11:32 PM




Comments:

Except that the President's tax policy could have been made more politically useful to him, by skewing it more to the middle class. That also would have enhanced the current recovery, according to most economists.

I think he does have a principled stand there, that the very highest brackets needed tax relief, even at some political cost.

posted by: voice of the demoracies on 03.08.04 at 11:32 PM [permalink]



doesn't it speak poorly of Pres. Bush, when the arguments defending him start relying on countries whose politics are widely known to be corrupt. I realize that the main comparison is Nixon, but to even use those other countries is a backdrop is a bit sad. Shouldn't it simply be an unstated assumption that any US president is incomparable to Russia during the last 10 years?

posted by: chris brandow on 03.08.04 at 11:32 PM [permalink]



Rogoff's is a fairly shallow analysis, given that Nixon faced very large Democratic majorities in Congress who supported raising Social Security benefits even more than he did, and that Bush started signing off on election year spending before the mid-term 2002 election (as in the 2002 farm bill), not bothering to wait until his own. Moreover the fixed exchange rates of the Bretton Woods regime were bound to outlive their usefulness at some point. It happened on Nixon's watch, but this was as much a coincidence as a result of political calculation.

I've always felt that economic policy during the Nixon period was influenced much more heavily by mistaken beliefs about and sometimes outright ignorance of economics than they were by campaign strategy. The near-obsessive focus on the campaign by this White House, the last White House, and all the Democratic candidates for the Presidency this year has I think tempted some analysts to evaluate past administrations by the standards of the present.

posted by: Zathras on 03.08.04 at 11:32 PM [permalink]



“...given that Nixon faced very large Democratic majorities in Congress who supported raising Social Security benefits even more than he did...”

President Bush’s protectionist policies and willingness to raise benefits to seniors seem senseless. These people will never reward him politically! He only alienates his base support. I can, at the very best, only give this administration at C+ regarding economic issues. Would a Democrat like John Kerry do a better job? Are you smoking an illegal substance? A Kerry administration would be far worse. President Bush is the lesser of evils.

Why is it so difficult to do what is necessary to truly help the economy to grow? That is a very simple question to answer: we live in a democracy---and many voters are economic illiterates. They take serious the ridiculous populist rhetoric of a John Kerry or John Edwards. Bashing the wealthy and advocating protectionist legislation can be very popular. Need some evidence? Just look at what happened to the Republican candidates who lost the fairly recent major races in Louisiana. It should tell you all you need to know.

posted by: David Thomson on 03.08.04 at 11:32 PM [permalink]



It always seemed to me that Nixon didn't care about domestic policy. He took the path of least resistance--which in those days meant a relatively liberal domestic policy--because he wanted to spend most of his time on foreign policy and went the way that he thought would insure his re-election. In a way, Nixon seemed to be somewhat of an echo of Eisenhower, who, while no domestic liberal, was not inclined to dismantle the New Deal because he was more interested in foreign policy. Of course, Nixon's lack of principle led to some egregious decisions (not even considering Watergate, of course) in the domestic arena. Bush's actions seem to be more purposefully political (although a recent article in Commentary suggests that Bush is "redefining" conservatism).

posted by: Marc on 03.08.04 at 11:32 PM [permalink]






Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:




Comments:


Remember your info?





Politics, economics, globalization, academia, pop culture... all from a untenured tenured perspective

Main home page
Main blog page
About Me
Search My Blog
Favorite Blogs
Book Recommendations
Books of the Month (Summer 2008)






Reviews of DanielDrezner.com:

"Sharp but informal commentary on politics and foreign policy." -- The New Republic

"Dan Drezner is terrific.... Excellent blog." -- Andrew Sullivan

"Dan's stuff is always worth reading." -- Eugene Volokh

"One of the essential weblogs." -- Gawker.com

"Old battle horse of the blogosphere." -- Jewcy.com

"Soft porn." -- Amitai Etzioni

"Spawned grave atrocities and vast destruction." -- Glenn Greenwald

"Monday morning quarterback... conservative robot... the very foundation of troubles in this country." -- not-so-random readers


Contact me at:
ddrezner@gmail.com
(But click here to read my e-mail policy)









Search the Site


Try advanced site search









Favorite Blogs

TNR's Open University
Jacob Levy
Glenn Reynolds
Andrew Sullivan
Mickey Kaus
Virginia Postrel
The Volokh Conspiracy
Josh Marshall
Crooked Timber
OxBlog
Real Clear Politics
Kevin Drum
Across the Aisle
Economist's Free Exchange
TNR's The Plank
NRO's The Corner
TAP's Tapped
America Abroad
Duck of Minerva
Opinio Juris
Brad DeLong

Jeff Jarvis
Mystery Pollster
Mark Kleiman
Meryl Yourish
Megan McArdle
Marginal Revolution
Michael Munger
Chris Lawrence
Matthew Yglesias
Hit and Run
Cold Spring Shops
Stephen Green
Outside the Beltway
Pejman Yousefzadeh
Laura McKenna (11D)
Elected Swineherd
Phil Carter
Joe Gandelman
Winds of Change
Andrew Samwick
Greg Mankiw
Dani Rodrik
Roger L. Simon
Tom Maguire
Greg Djerejian
The American Scene
Post Global
Democracy Arsenal




Recent articles online

"Foreign Policy Goes Glam."
The National Interest, November/December 2007

"Rise of the Hipster Statesmen."
Newsweek International, November 1, 2007

"The New New World Order."
Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007

"Mind the Gap."
The National Interest, January/February 2007

"The Grandest Strategy Of Them All."
Washington Post, December 17, 2006

U.S. Trade Strategy: Free Versus Fair
Council on Foreign Relations Press, September 2006.

Complete online article archive




Blog Archives

June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002

Academia
Area studies
Book club
culture
economics
fence-sitting
from Blogger
globalization
homeland security
international relations
law
Mediasphere
My very important posts
New Republic
outsourcing
personal
politics
Sports
The blog paper
the blogosphere
thesis ideas
Trade and Development
U.S. foreign policy
website maintenance

See full archives listing




Recent Entries

Someone keep Fleet Street away from Bill Clinton
It rivals Buckley vs. Vidal, I tell you
So.... are the Clintons morons?
The New York Times didn't ask me, but then again, that's why I have this blog
Monica Crowley's jet black pot
Al Qaeda is losing
Speaking of karma....
The blog post that writes itself
What made me laugh today
Where should Hillary go?




Site Credits