Tuesday, May 4, 2004

previous entry | main | next entry | TrackBack (1)


The Asian brown cloud

The Chicago Tribune's front-pager yesterday was a James P. Miller story about the effect of Chinese air pollution -- the "Asian brown cloud" -- on U.S. weather. Some of the tidbits:

Add one more item to the long list of things Asia exports to the United States: air pollution.

The contaminated air that rides the jet stream to Trinidad is laced with the sulfates and soot from Asia's industrial smokestacks, and nitrogen oxides that emerge from tailpipes of Asia's rapidly growing fleet of automobiles. It contains particles from fires set to clear jungles for farming, and from the millions of households that burn coal, wood or animal dung for heating and cooking.

Scientists identified the phenomenon five years ago. The Asian brown cloud, researchers now know, routinely climbs high enough into the atmosphere to hitch a ride on the fast-moving jet stream heading east to North America. In April and May, when seasonal winds are strongest, the high-altitude pollution can cross the Pacific in as little as four days....

So far, the increase in ground-level pollution that the Asian brown cloud causes in the United States is "not catastrophic, or even critical," said David Parrish, a research chemist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Aeronomy Lab in Boulder, Colorado....

A cloud heavy with particles of dust or pollution is whiter than a non-polluted cloud, because water droplets condense around the particles, explained [scientist V.] Ramanathan.

"Double the aerosols, double the droplets," he said. That means polluted clouds reflect sunlight more efficiently than a clean cloud. And that, in turn, affects the weather.

When clouds scatter sunlight, ground-level temperature declines. Such unnaturally high reflectivity also can suppress rainfall, or it can hold rain back so long that when it finally does fall to earth, it comes in the form of a damaging downpour, said Ramanathan.

Some researchers, in fact, think the extra-white clouds caused by dirty air are helping to offset the global warming effect. That would offer an explanation for the unsettling fact that "the planet hasn't warmed as much as the models suggest it should," given the amount of greenhouse gas that humans have released into the atmosphere, the researcher said.

The Asian cloud is only the first and largest of a number of high-atmosphere brown clouds scientists have discovered. This summer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is funding a major study of a similar blotch found hovering a mile or more above the eastern U.S. (and which sends a plume of dirty air trailing toward Europe.)

It's not clear if there are any policy implications from this -- but I hadn't seen the phenomenon reported previously.

posted by Dan on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM




Comments:

you mean some kind of kyoto protocol? :D the thing tho is that they're just going to do what's in their national self-interest, so if it doesn't affect them as much, why bother regulating it? that's why the US never signed on! until convinced otherwise it's always 'best' to offload externalities on others, esp if you profit from it.

so, ironically, it's not global warming per se that gets people to act, but los angeles warming, alaska warming and colorado warming, even if the causation is still somewhat sketchy. there's nothing like an 'asian brown cloud' to awaken primordial fears of a 'yellow peril' threatening the states to make headlines.

posted by: chosun on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]



There is a lot of supposition in that article. Even if it is taken on faith, my solution would be to speed the process of China's advance so that it doesn't have to rely on old tech. Fears of an 'Asian Brown Cloud' (what a great name) don't help anything; and the discussion about the 'whiteness' of clouds? Are these scientists or highschool science teachers?

posted by: Scott on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]



"That would offer an explanation for the unsettling fact that "the planet hasn't warmed as much as the models suggest it should," given the amount of greenhouse gas that humans have released into the atmosphere, the researcher said." First off, why is it unsettling? Don't we want less warning. Second, if the models are off, it is more likely that the very blunt instrument of computer modeling is just not accurate, not that there must be some other natural explanation.

posted by: Kyle Swanson on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]



"Such unnaturally high reflectivity also can suppress rainfall"

I wonder if that's a factor in the drought in the southwest US.

posted by: Jon H on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]



Yet another reason to celebrate high oil prices today, which (don't economists tell us this?) should drive down consumption and stimulate research into alternative energy sources.

posted by: General Glut on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]



Scaring people generates funding, votes, etc. So scientists will do it. So, yeah, the scientists are trying to spin this as a reason (externalities) that global rules for emissions are necessary.

However, this has absolutely no connection to the Kyoto Protocol. First of all, these types of pollutants are of the sort not regulated by Kyoto at all, which only covered CO_2. These are things like SO_X, and NO_X, etc., which are already heavily regulated in the US, and whose US emissions have and continue to be decreasing. Adopt Kyoto or not, and there would be no effect on these. (Well, unless we all switched to diesel to decrease CO_2, which would at the same time emit MORE formaldehyde, NOX and SOX.)

Even beyond that, of course the PRC was not required to make any cuts under Kyoto anyway. In the case of 朝鮮 (or 韓国 if you like), I'm not sure what cuts were required. Given the ROK's alternating habit of insisting that it's wealthy (when it wants to brag) and that it's a developing nation (when it wants to defend its way-more-outrageous-than-the-US-or-Europe farm subsidies), I wouldn't be surprised if it was mostly off the hook.

posted by: John Thacker on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]



"That would offer an explanation for the unsettling fact that "the planet hasn't warmed as much as the models suggest it should," "

Only in the environmentalist cult does this statement make any sense.

Isnt the scientific method to form a hypothesis, test it, revise the hypothesis? When did that turn into: form a hypothesis, test it, when tests consistantly contradict hypothesis look for other mechanism masking the underlying intergrity of the hypothesis? Preferably of Asian design?
Occam is spinning on his razor.

posted by: Mark Buehner on 05.04.04 at 12:28 AM [permalink]






Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:




Comments:


Remember your info?





Politics, economics, globalization, academia, pop culture... all from a untenured tenured perspective

Main home page
Main blog page
About Me
Search My Blog
Favorite Blogs
Book Recommendations
Books of the Month (Summer 2008)






Reviews of DanielDrezner.com:

"Sharp but informal commentary on politics and foreign policy." -- The New Republic

"Dan Drezner is terrific.... Excellent blog." -- Andrew Sullivan

"Dan's stuff is always worth reading." -- Eugene Volokh

"One of the essential weblogs." -- Gawker.com

"Old battle horse of the blogosphere." -- Jewcy.com

"Soft porn." -- Amitai Etzioni

"Spawned grave atrocities and vast destruction." -- Glenn Greenwald

"Monday morning quarterback... conservative robot... the very foundation of troubles in this country." -- not-so-random readers


Contact me at:
ddrezner@gmail.com
(But click here to read my e-mail policy)









Search the Site


Try advanced site search









Favorite Blogs

TNR's Open University
Jacob Levy
Glenn Reynolds
Andrew Sullivan
Mickey Kaus
Virginia Postrel
The Volokh Conspiracy
Josh Marshall
Crooked Timber
OxBlog
Real Clear Politics
Kevin Drum
Across the Aisle
Economist's Free Exchange
TNR's The Plank
NRO's The Corner
TAP's Tapped
America Abroad
Duck of Minerva
Opinio Juris
Brad DeLong

Jeff Jarvis
Mystery Pollster
Mark Kleiman
Meryl Yourish
Megan McArdle
Marginal Revolution
Michael Munger
Chris Lawrence
Matthew Yglesias
Hit and Run
Cold Spring Shops
Stephen Green
Outside the Beltway
Pejman Yousefzadeh
Laura McKenna (11D)
Elected Swineherd
Phil Carter
Joe Gandelman
Winds of Change
Andrew Samwick
Greg Mankiw
Dani Rodrik
Roger L. Simon
Tom Maguire
Greg Djerejian
The American Scene
Post Global
Democracy Arsenal




Recent articles online

"Foreign Policy Goes Glam."
The National Interest, November/December 2007

"Rise of the Hipster Statesmen."
Newsweek International, November 1, 2007

"The New New World Order."
Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007

"Mind the Gap."
The National Interest, January/February 2007

"The Grandest Strategy Of Them All."
Washington Post, December 17, 2006

U.S. Trade Strategy: Free Versus Fair
Council on Foreign Relations Press, September 2006.

Complete online article archive




Blog Archives

June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002

Academia
Area studies
Book club
culture
economics
fence-sitting
from Blogger
globalization
homeland security
international relations
law
Mediasphere
My very important posts
New Republic
outsourcing
personal
politics
Sports
The blog paper
the blogosphere
thesis ideas
Trade and Development
U.S. foreign policy
website maintenance

See full archives listing




Recent Entries

Someone keep Fleet Street away from Bill Clinton
It rivals Buckley vs. Vidal, I tell you
So.... are the Clintons morons?
The New York Times didn't ask me, but then again, that's why I have this blog
Monica Crowley's jet black pot
Al Qaeda is losing
Speaking of karma....
The blog post that writes itself
What made me laugh today
Where should Hillary go?




Site Credits