He needs the price of oil to stay or hover around $40 a barrel. If that stands than he avoids a recall. If it falls, he tumbles.

This is big news. Arguably, the date of the referendum is more important than whether the referendum happens at all. Why? Due to an eccentricity of Venezuelan constitutional law, the date of the vote changes the outcome of an anti-Chavez vote. If the Chavez loses before August 19th, new elections will occur which will elect a new president. If the vote happens after the magic date, Chavez’s vice presidente takes over and Chavez remains in power as the man behind the curtain. Due to this ruling, the date is set for sometime in July. Polls say that Chavez will probably lose.

The real question now becomes, will the recall go off without tremendous amounts of violence? I would warn against all but the most cautious optimism.

T

There is serious concern about voting fraud. Not that voter fraud is a new concept in Venezuela (or other democracies, for that matter), but apparently the government is entertaining the idea of using an unproven e-voting system without a paper trail.

Say what you will (or you did) about Jimmy Carter in the following post, the fact that the referendum is even taking place owes a great deal to teh persistence of the Carter Center and its observers in the review of the signatures.

Last I knew, the Venezuelan military (controlled by Chavez) had stormed the offices of the Venezuelan police (not controlled by Chavez) and taken away their firearms.

In any situation where you have one armed party and one unarmed party, the potential for violence is significant.

Of course, optimistically, maybe the Venezuelan military gave the police back their .38's. That should bring some parity of force...