Prediction: If Kerry wins, he appoints McCain as Secretary of Defense. This does two things:

1. Immediately shores up his national security credentials
2. Allows Democratic AZ Governor Napolitano to appoint a Democrat in his place for the Senate.

I think doing this is technically illegal -- a presidential candidate can't promise someone a job. (The concerns which underlie that rule are to my eyes barely if ever implicated at the Cabinet level, but it's still the rule.)

As much as I respect and admire John McCain, I don't see him being Kerry's Secretary of Defense -- at least, not while Sam Nunn is available.

The idea of doing something here because it is common practice in Europe does not appeal to me.

I would prefer a more limited and practical step, to reduce the time it takes for a new administration to get staffed and up to speed. Major candidates should be allowed to submit lists of people who could be considered for major Cabinet and sub-Cabinet appointments to the FBI and other appropriate agencies six months or so before the election, to permit much of the clearance procedures needed for appointees to high office to be done in at least some cases in a timely manner.

There are disadvantages to this idea, including the expansion in the number of people who would have to be cleared (because both candidates would be submitting lists of people who might be appointed, instead of one President elect announcing the names of people who will be appointed. Under the present system, though, staffing a new administration is not complete until well after its first term begins, and new administrations have been embarrassed when appointments that had not been thought through before the campaign ended were made in haste.

The confirmation process painful, but it takes place after you've won. If a challenger had to rescind his VP choice, it would imperil his candidacy. Withdrawing a presumptive cabinet nomination would do less damage, but imagine Clinton's initial choices being revealed before the 1992 election: Death by a thousand cuts.

The inevitable response would be to choose pre-election cabinet members in much the same way VP's are chosen today: Don't increase your target profile, don't increase your negatives. A group so mainstream as to guarantee it will do nothing in office.

Perhaps a couple key positions that are truly inspired choices could be telegraphed. (Was this done with Powell for SecState in 2000? I feel some deja vu about the idea that McCain might be named SecDef regardless of who wins.)

Powell's choice was definitely broadcast before the election. Maybe COndi RIce as well. Perhaps Bush thought that he could use Powell's popularity to get moderates (which might have worked) or African Americans in general (which didn't work).

The UK has a shadow cabinet, and it may be a good idea for the US as well to strongly hint at a shadow cabinet.

You know, I have a great deal of respect for McCain's military service, as anyone should.

But .. I think his military service (and the fact that he's a maverick, occasionally supporting Democratic positions) makes the press and other politicans (both Demos and Repubs) give him a bit of a pass on serious issues. Repubs ignore his nasty comments about post-war Iraq. Dems try to flirt with him for VP post.

For one, there is is his well known involvement with the Keating 5. There are other scandals in his past as well, and other verbal gaffes. Would a Democrat have considerd any other republiacn who said that Chelsea was ugly because Janet Reno was her father ?

So, no McCain as SecDef

I would go with Chuck Hagel myself for Kerry as SecDef. A Rubineseque Democrat as Sec Treasry . Sec. State -- Holbrooke ? An Arican American and a Hispanic in the cabinet, a couple of women.

Gephardt coule be Sec Interior or Sec Labor as payback. [ Gephardt as Sec. Labor would frightem business, but a very pro-bizness Sec Commerce and Sec Treasurt might reassure them].

If Nader wasn't such a wacko, I would suggest that Kerry drop some subtle hints to Nader that he could get EPA head position in a Kerry admin. But that would drive business totally nuts, so its not worth it for political reasons only.

A good idea, but a loser -- to the attack dog politics of Perfection. Any real choice has some downside. Today, the downside is publicized, and analyzed, and additionally hypothesized into a maximum worst case scenario. Any real choice for any position will result in more negative publicity.

Even you are falling for this junk. You don't like Bush secrecy, pork spending, and social issues. I don't like the first two either (I do like the FMA and I'm against abortion).

But that stuff really doesn't matter so much; there's not that much difference. The main two-part issue is: (a) will Iran get nukes in the next four years? (b) will terrorists use nukes in the next four years?

If Kerry gets elected, no matter what he says, the mullahs will increase their belief that Iran will be allowed to develop nukes. TRY writing your own probabilites. Mine:
Iran gets nukes in the next 4 years --
Bush - 10%
Kerry - 40% (recently increased from 30%).

Terrorists get nukes within 4 years of Iran getting nukes, 50% (either; maybe even a bit more likely if Bush, say 60%).

There's no correct answer here, only Bayesian a priori probability as an information measure. What do you really think? I challenge you to write it.

Pakistan has had nukes for at least 15 years, in a country riddled with Taliban sympathizers, Al Qaeda operatives and a military that is loaded with Islamic radicals. The route to terrorists acquiring nukes is probably far more likely to be via Pakistan than Iran ..

If Kerry gets elected, no matter what he says, the mullahs will increase their belief that Iran will be allowed to develop nukes.

Eh? Why?

This would drastically increase the number of targets for attack. Every potential nominee would be subjected to all sorts of distorted ads about his or her record on this or that.

This has to be losing strategy for a challenger.

Shadow cabinet sounds like a good idea.

Also, think the U.S. campaign season is way too long and too much money spent on campaigns and conventions(partying).

I think it is a good idea. Maybe not an entire cabinet as I am sure some person mentined for Sec. of Agriculture said something 15 years ago that will be an issue for a couple of days and distract from the business of focusing on who is better suited to run the nation.

But announcing a few key positions seems like a good idea.

And while we are talking about this, maybe Bush should do the same. It is generally accepted that Powell will leave should Bush be elected. Who will replace him? Who will be the next Director of Central Intelligence? Given that Powell has been the most respected person in the adminstration internationally it is pretty important to know how Bush is thinking about replacing him.

There are a couple of problems with this idea. Firstly, potential cabinet members must be vetted, an expensive process usually done by the FBI. This is to uncover not only major problems but also lesser ones such as illegal immigrant nannies or other staff. Should the U.S. government pay for this? Most candidates have to commit all their available funds for election expenses: ads, travel, polls, etc. Should the government pay this for candidates like Nader and the Liberatarian party candidate?
Secondly, anyone mentioned would by subjected to constant attack by the Republican Party and it's apparatchiks. Would people be willing to undergo this unless they were guaranteed the post?

Kerry, or any challenger, doesn't need to actually name anyone. But he should hold meetings with a group of Democratic party 'names' who would be candidates for key cabinet posts. This is what Bush did last time around with all those 'tutorial' with Rice, Powell, Cheney, et. al. in Texas. The press eats it up. It also would create the impression that you have a deep bench that might look a whole lot better to the public compared to Bush's team. For example, Kerry brings a group of foreign policy/defense officials out to Nantucket for a closed door session...Albright, Holbrooke, Berger, Wes Clark, Joe Biden, maybe Zinni, etc. It would create the impression (i) that these guys will be ready to hit the ground running on Iraq and terror, and (ii) it gets people thinking 'hey, these guys are all pretty competent. maybe we'd be better off with them running the show instead of Cheney, Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld.'

This, I like. It gets into all sorts of executive / legislative branch blurs that UK shadow cabinet folks don't deal with, I guess for the most part because they're already MP's. U.S. voters are voting on cultural issues now. This might begin to make campaigns issue-based again since shadow-spokespeople would articulate policy differences in their areas of policy interest. It would also allow members of the non-incumbent's party to speak for themselves, & reach the public's consciousness over a period of years rather than at a frantic pace during the primary season. It might also allow a clear challenger to emerge prior to primary season & therefore allow a party to nominate without the bloodletting & theater of the primaries (thus avoiding the awkward reruns of what Kerry said about Edwards &c...)