Monday, November 29, 2004
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Just one more Ukraine post for today...
As my previous posts suggest, I've been very wary of what happens if Ukraine blows up. Fred Weir and Helen Womack's piece in the Christian Science Monitor encapsulates these fears pretty well.
That said, it's cheering to see signs that maybe Ukraine won't blow up -- this week.
AFP reports that President Kuchma has come out in favor of new elections in the disputed regions (Donetsk and Luhansk):
That last quotation is significant, because Yanukovich has stated his preference all along for strictly legal solutions.
Yanukovich has acceded to Kuchma's preferences, according to Reuters:
Meanwhile, the Kyiv Post reports that the secessionist threat has freaked out some of the oligarchs:
On Akhmetov, check out Tom Warner's story in the Financial Times.
Encouragingly, Interfax reports that Ukraine's defense minister has rejected the idea of a state of emergency.
What's going on? There are three possibilities:
Developing....posted by Dan on 11.29.04 at 02:31 PM
I'm a bit troubled by the possibility that the crisis may be ended by a re-vote endorsed by the oligarchs, on the grounds that they fear division of the country. Is it ever good when oligarchs get what they want? And do they really fear a break-up of Ukraine, or are they simply exploiting the situation to maintain their positions?posted by: Andrew Steele on 11.29.04 at 02:31 PM [permalink]
posted by: pax on 11.29.04 at 02:31 PM [permalink]
From Moscow Times(via pax)
Even if Ukraine and Russia have a common past, there is a fundamental difference between the two countries, as Russian civil society is weak and easy to manipulate, while Ukrainian civil society is not, they said.posted by: Brennan Stout on 11.29.04 at 02:31 PM [permalink]
Re your speculation #3, it appears that the Y-ch forces have calculated that Y-ko needs even larger offers to refuse:
In an apparent bid to compromise, Yanukovych said that if he becomes president, he will offer Yushchenko the post of "first person," or the prime minister's job. -- http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041130/D86MD2280.htmlposted by: Jarrett on 11.29.04 at 02:31 PM [permalink]
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