Academics....now there's a hopeful thought.

The last time, broad but shallow support for one of a group of Italian cardinals was overcome by determined advocacy by a small number of cardinals, none of them from Eastern Europe, of the Polish cardinal's candidacy. This advocacy was driven by a number of factors, including personal acquaintance and respect for scholarship. Another factor, though, was that there was greater consensus then than now about the Church's main challenges. In the late 1970s these had largely to do with Communism.

What is the primary challenge facing the Church today? Relations with Islam? Not in Latin America it isn't, and almost half the world's Catholics live there. The decline of the Church in its historic European heartland? Poverty? Materialism? The rise of evangelical Protestantism? It is no criticism of John Paul II that his papacy seemed less focused in its later years than it was toward the beginning.

My own guess is that the next Pope will most likely come from Latin America, where the most Catholics live and where cultural affinities with Europe are strong enough so that a Latin American Pope would not be a jarring departure as an African or Asian might. But votes in this election will be made on a more personal basis than any other, and a cardinal who impresses his colleagues as the then-Archbishop of Cracow did may not be badly disadvantaged if he should happen to come from a small country or have an unusual background.

My money is on going back to an Italian. Any decision that might help the popularity of the church amongst its parishioners is certain to be rejected. Speaking as a nominal Catholic, I lost hope and interest long ago, right around the time Cardinal Law moved into cushy new Vatican digs. The day I take more than a passing interest in church affairs (much less drop so much as a penny in the plate) is the day they put a woman under the big red hat. That might give me back an ounce of trust. So basically, never.

There's a saying about those who are labelled papabile (good candidates for pope) before they enter the conclave:

"Enter a conclave as a papabile, leave as a cardinal."

Was Wojtyla considered a frontrunner in the press before the conclave in which he was elected Pope?

Before the last conclave, according to this article, Fr. Andrew Greeley picked Cardinal Franz König of Austria at one point or later Corrado Ursi of Naples to have the votes to become pope.

http://www.thesoutherncross.co.za/features/conclave78.htm

Heh.

No

He was a compromise candidate.

Did you ever read this Christopher Buckley story in the Atlantic?

It's from April 2003, and it's all about his slimy political operator, Rick Renard, electioneering for Pope.

I think it'd be more entertaining to go back to the old method: let the ruling families of Rome have a small war, and the winner gets to pick one of their own as pope.

Daniel,

Thank you for referencing the Cardinal Ratzinger Fan Club. First, I'd like to state for the record that the RFC was/is entirely a "grassroots" project, you might say a spontaneous expression of the laity expressing their appreciation for the work of the Cardinal in carrying out the duties of his office as well as his theology. We have a few seminarians on our mailing list, but no exercise of ecclesial influence. (The Cardinal has heard of us and has encountered a few "members," on occasion, much to his amusement). But I don't think you'll find any member of ours handing out buttons, lobbying cardinals or campaigning on the Cardinal's behalf -- as Mark Shea said, this isn't exactly the New Hampshire primaries. =)

As far as Ratzinger's alleged "desire" for the papacy (imputed by Ms. Sly), and the expression of that desire in the publication of his writings on "his own website" -- or, rather, the official website of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith -- I blogged on this question back in January: Cardinal Ratzinger - The Next Pope?:

Cardinal Ratzinger is reported to have twice handed in his resignation as Prefect for the Congregation of the Doctrine of the Faith, "only to be asked by the Pope to stay on" (source). I can't lay claim to inside sources from the Vatican, but I suspect that if the Cardinal had his druthers, he'd like to retire in peace, spending his waning years writing theology texts, playing the piano, enjoying the solitude of the Bavarian Alps.

Meanwhile, the Cardinal had previously given his preference that the next Pope "be from Africa", which was interpreted as a support for Cardinal Arinze. Who, I agree, would also be ideal given his firsthand experience dealing with Islam, the liturgy (he currently heads Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments) and interreligious relations (former head of Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue) -- good experience to have, especially in this era.

If called to serve the Church in yet another capacity, I'm sure Ratzinger would be up to the task, and I'd personally be delighted by the election of either Cardinal to the office, but I try not to speculate too much. I trust the Holy Spirit to guide our Cardinals in their decision.

How about Pius Ncube, the archbishop of Bulawayo, for pope? Human Rights First (formerly the Lawyers Committee for Human Rights) says of Ncube: "As an outspoken critic of the Robert Mugabe government, the Archbishop has been slandered, and lives under constant threat to his personal safety. Despite this, the Archbishop continues to be a shining light in the fight for human rights--demanding that his government address the mounting food and economic crises and put an end to torture and rape."
Sounds like the right man to me.