Monday, July 25, 2005

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How the Chinese drevalue the yuan

Now we know that the Chinese devalued the yuan -- and we know pretty much why. But what were nuts and bolts of the decision-making process? How did it hapen?

The staff at the Wall Street Journal has a great essay on the two-year process by which the Chinese decided to revalue their yuan. The opening is killer:

Last Thursday morning, several key foreign banks were asked to send a representative to the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank. The topic wasn't clear.

The meeting began around the time China's foreign-exchange market was closing for the day at 3:30 p.m. As a central-bank official began to talk, the doors were shut and locked.

"They started talking about something that wasn't very useful and then started to collect mobile phones and BlackBerrys," said a banker who was briefed later. The Chinese then distributed a four-point statement: Beijing was unlinking the yuan from the U.S. dollar effective immediately.

Then another surprise: The bankers were told they would have to cool their heels until an official statement was read nearly three hours later on China's government-controlled 7 p.m. news program.

That last-minute combination of surprise and secrecy was in keeping with the long-running drama over the yuan. (emphasis added)

UPDATE: Sorry, typo in the heading -- it should have been "revalue" and not "devalue" thanks to commenters for pointing out the error.

posted by Dan on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM




Comments:

Hopefully "a combination of surprise and secrecy" does not also wait us for new developments in Bird Flu. Unfortunately, some very bad news is leaking out of China.

http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/english/page1.shtml
("Boxum: Abundant News" first broke the SARS story. They're now covering human-to-human H5N1 transmission in China)

Summary & Comment by a genetics / public health expert:
http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

The frightening thing is that Avian Flu is far more dangerous than SARS, so if they are experiencing an outbreak, we can all be in DEEP trouble. The other issue is that we are completely unprepared for this. All the warning signs are apparent, in open public sources, but there is very little action or even awareness of the seriousness of this situation.

Given the stakes, this should be on the radar at least as much as monetary policies!


posted by: Eric on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Your report is that representatives of foreign banks were HELD HOSTAGE by the PRC? And, did any have the courage to protest, or are they all just whores?

Should we all go marching down the street with Mao's "little red book" in hand?

There is no difference between this government and Adolf Hitler's.

Trade with them......is like trading with the Third Reich.

Sometimes, the sheep lead themselves to slaughter.

posted by: clarence on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Your report is that representatives of foreign banks were HELD HOSTAGE by the PRC? And, did any have the courage to protest, or are they all just whores?

Should we all go marching down the street with Mao's "little red book" in hand?

There is no difference between this government and Adolf Hitler's.

Trade with them......is like trading with the Third Reich.

Sometimes, the sheep lead themselves to slaughter.

posted by: clarence on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



revalue, i think. certainly for the link. 8.11 rmb/ $ is stronger than 8.28 rmb/ $. one yuan now buys (marginally) more dollars.

tho maybe the title was mean to be a libertarian commentary on locking up bankers (even temporarily) and confiscating blackberries.

posted by: brad on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



"Devalued" up top ought to be "revalued" shurely?

posted by: dsquared on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Ok. I'll stop beating this dead-horse, but China is really acting irresponsibly.

Here's the World Health Organization loudly complaining about the PRC:
http://www.theworldforum.org/story/2005/7/25/113048/859

This kind of treatment of banks and bankers is worrisome; blocking essential global public health monitoring is a strategic threat.

posted by: Eric on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



If Mubarak has seen Casablanca one too many times ("round up the usual suspects"), maybe the Chinese have been watching Goldfinger.

posted by: Zathras on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



The Chinese government may have been a little over-dramatic, but their query for secrecy doesn't seem that bizarre to me. In foreign exchange markets, huge sums of money can be made by people who have such information and this is no more bizarre than the lock down process than the Department of Labor goes through when generating employment numbers every month.

posted by: erg on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Brad and Daniel: thanks for catching the very problematic typo. It's fixed

posted by: Dan Drezner on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



I've recently arrived back from a stint of research in Beijing and at the US DoC. The Chinese govt. officials I talked to are all quite competent, and there is no hint of anything nefarious going on (at least within MOFCOM; the security bureaus are, of course, not quite as reformed). I'm rather amazed that so many people think China today is the same as China 1970 or China 1989.

That said, the human rights situation, especially in the West, remains atrocious, but even it is slowly improving.

posted by: cure on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Some people still want to see people in Mao suits and waving little red books. The idea of a modern China with competent bureaucrats is too disconnected from their preconceived notions of what is going on in China. Like Falun Gong. People in the west think they're the most important religious minority group when almost all Chinese think think they're crazy brainwashed cultists.

posted by: DC Loser on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Hey, China's political philosophy is rooted in plain old mid-20th century Italian Fascism.

posted by: Scott Ferguson on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Not that there's anything wrong with that.

posted by: DC Loser on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



I would suggest that many are over estimating the influence that the technocrats had in this decision. While the move itself was about 2%, it served two Central Committee purposes. It made it a little more expensive to invest in China with dollars and it raised the costs of Chinese goods exported to the United States. I have argued on my blog that the Chinese leadership see this move as one more step in an on-going attack on the United States.

This is all about China, not the West. The leadership believes that it has dealt a blow to Western economic interests and strengthened China.

posted by: Chuck Simmins on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]



Actually, your typo raises a question: what's the opposite of devalue? To say "revalue" doesn't specify a sign; it could be a strengthening in the yuan relative to the dollar, or a weakening. I can't think of a one-word term that means "to strengthen one's currency."

posted by: Dave on 07.25.05 at 03:07 PM [permalink]






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