The one key freedom is press freedom -- can the press make fun of the Islamic Republic leaders? If yes, that's a huge success.
If no, not a success.

If Saddam, or another dictator, gets power -- that's a failure. We won't know this until after a leader is elected, and then turns power over to the next elected leader (at the earliest).

When did we know that Mugabe in Zimbabwe was a failure?

This paragraph from the article disturbs me more than any of the rest:

'The United States no longer expects to see a model new democracy, a self-supporting oil industry or a society in which the majority of people are free from serious security or economic challenges, U.S. officials say.'

What kind of failed state do these officials envision that can't get the oil industry up and running in the foreseeable future? Surely any stable state or federation would do everything they could to do that. The implications of that statement seem enormous.

it was a robin wright story, and so was riddled with contradictions, as well as cherry picking of negative facts (the number of Iraqi soldiers and police killed was cited, but not the number recruited or trained - the peak month for deats among Army reservists was highlighted - what exactly is the point of distinguishing reservist from Active deaths, except to create a quotable factoid). What does a "self sufficient oil industry" mean? That they wont run the industry themselves? Or, as seems more likely from the article, that they will need to import refined products from neighbors for awhile? and why is that important, considering that Iraq exports Crude oil, not refined products? And, in the Yogi Berra dept (no one goes there anymore, its too crowded) Ms wright mentions that there are huge lines for gasoline, given the huge increase in cars owned in Iraq. How that increase squares with economic failure in Iraq is not explained, or even noted.

She quotes Yaffe on the Shia insisting on their own autonomous region, when its only Hakim who has called for that, and Jaafari seems to oppose it.

all in all a typical Robin Wright peice of junk.

And in the "my own paper contradicts me" dept, the article below had the best news from Iraq in a long time - the action of the Sunni Arab Dulaime tribe, driving out the Zarqawi thugs from Ramadi, and preventing the ethnic cleansing of the Shia of that city.

"And in the "my own paper contradicts me" dept, the article below had the best news from Iraq in a long time - "

The co-author of both articles is the same.
Nothing in the original article is contradicted by the later article. The Wright article refers to the expectations of Americans for Iraq.

"Ms wright mentions that there are huge lines for gasoline, given the huge increase in cars owned in Iraq. How that increase squares with economic failure in Iraq is not explained, or even noted."

That is easily understood by anyone with any knowledge of third world economies. The Saddam regime used to restrict imports of cars and many other products (even before sanctions) to protect domestic industries. In the absence of these restrictions, there have been a number of luxury goods bought by Iraqis. It should also be added that corruption and bribery are endemic in Iraq and that has probably been responsible for at last soem of the consumer items.

The South has seen genuine economic progress though.

same co-author

yes i noticed that. But the first article was typical Wright, and I assume the coauthor added only a few pieces. The Wright article did NOT only address US perceptions or plans, but went on to cite conditions in Iraq, based on cherry picked factoids.

As for cars, whatever the cause, the fact is that large numbers of Iraqis have the wherewhithal to purchase autos, and have done so. The prima facie assumption one would make is that this is a sign of economic progress - if Ms Wright has reason to think its all money from bribes, she should say so. She does NOT mention, for ex, that one reason refined products are in short supply, is that they continue to be sold at subsidized, below market clearing prices. She merely indicates shortages of refined product as another negative factoid - in that context, ignoring the increase in cars on the road, struck me as simply a Yogi Berraism.

"She does NOT mention, for ex, that one reason refined products are in short supply, is that they continue to be sold at subsidized, below market clearing prices."

Which is not a good sign either. Huge subsidies can cause serious problems for governments. And there is plenty of evidence (from indepdendent third parties) of massive corruption in Iraq.

It seems to me President Bush has set a number of short-term goals that don't address long-term problems. For the President, if you've written a democratic constitution, you've created a democracy; if you've put thousands of Iraqis through rudimentary military training, you've established domestic security; if you've refurbished school buildings, you've given education to the Iraqi youth. It's almost Clinton-like, the focus on process and superficial achievement.

What's going to happen, sooner or later, is that we're going to declare victory and leave. The administration will tally up a bunch of short-term achievements (a written constitution, x-number of trained Iraqi troops, etc.), craft these achievements into a coherent prime-time speech, and say, "we're outta here".

Then, either hell breaks loose in Iraq, or someone with a very strong arm (a la Saddam) imposes order.

Okay -- I know its extremely sick and tasteless but I know why there are a lot of cars in Iraq now. They're needed for the car bombs.

You seem to be assuming that George W. Bush has even a small idea of what is actually going on in Iraq. His radio address is the same catch-phrase nonsense he's been spouting for over two years. The man obviously has no feeling for the nuances of politics, history, ethnicity. In short, he's clueless. And a few concerned and capable officials are scrambling behind him trying to rescue a very bad situation.

It's nice to know that our guest blogger never believed we could midwife a stable liberal democracy in Iraq, in the space of two years, or in our lifetime for that matter. I have no reason to think that architects of the war or of the democracy promotion efforts like Wolfowitz or Makiya ever believed otherwise either.

If instead all we've done is remove a totally despotic regime from power, frighten away other despots like Gheddafi and Assad from pursuing their dreams, create a little bit of breathing room for democratic developments in Lebanon, Egypt, and Iraq itself, and force al-Qaeda linked and al-Qaeda inspired terrorist networks to go for broke now rather than later, in Iraq and all around the globe, thus allowing us to respond to them with more focus and passion and military might than we otherwise could or would, that would be enough for me.

"Which is not a good sign either. Huge subsidies can cause serious problems for governments"

But thats not the kind of problem the article implied. OMFG, the Iraqis havent implemented free market pricing of gasoline, oh no, wed better give up on democracy in Iraq!!! The implication was that the lines showed the Iraqi oil industry was failing, and therefore that Iraq was failing.

This isnt isolated quibbling. Everything Wright puts out has this agenda - and she repackages facts, takes items out of context, and gets quotes from folks selected to back her up. To look for news to a Robin Wright article is profoundly foolish.

"Which is not a good sign either. Huge subsidies can cause serious problems for governments"

But thats not the kind of problem the article implied. OMFG, the Iraqis havent implemented free market pricing of gasoline, oh no, wed better give up on democracy in Iraq!!! The implication was that the lines showed the Iraqi oil industry was failing, and therefore that Iraq was failing.

This isnt isolated quibbling. Everything Wright puts out has this agenda - and she repackages facts, takes items out of context, and gets quotes from folks selected to back her up. To look for news to a Robin Wright article is profoundly foolish. Shes like the poster child for MSM bias on Iraq and the middle east.

"Everything Wright puts out has this agenda - and she repackages facts, takes items out of context,"

Yup, how dare she not include all the bright news. All those MSM types, refusing to see that a country with 2 car-bombs a day is not in great shape.

in the great minds think alike department

Mickey Kaus:

"WaPo's Robin Wright, who has been sneering from the sidelines throughout the Iraq war, recently co-wrote a much-noticed article, "U.S. Lowers Sights on What Can Be Achieved in Iraq." Am I the only person who found it thin and unconvincing? When I read, in Wright's lede, that the "Bush administration is significantly lowering expectations of what can be achieved in Iraq," I expect to see a depressing Kerry-like acceptance of a post-pullout stable military autocracy or acceptance of an Iran-style religious state--something that would really suggest that the invasion wasn't close to being worth the costs. Instead, Wright tells us: 1) What we already knew--there's not enough electricity or security and unemployment is very high. Damage from looting has hurt the ability to quickly build a "robust" Iraqi economy; 2) Oil production is "estimated at 2.2 million barrels a day, short of the goal of 2.5 million"! 3) the constitution will "require laws to be compliant with Islam," as if that vague requirement automatically means something horrible; 4) Kurds and Shiites are expecting "de facto long term" some sort of autonomy. (That's a bad thing?) 5) We don't expect to "fully defeat the insurgency" before our troops leave. ... There are also some downbeat, non-specific quotes from critics like Larry Diamond--who laments that we "don't have the time to go through the process we envisioned ... to build a democratic culture and consensus." And there's one anonymous "U.S. official" who says "we will have some form of Islamic republic." But there's no indication that this "Islamic republic" won't be democratic--e.g. that it will be de facto ruled by mullahs as opposed to elections. ... P.S.: I'm not saying the Bushies haven't drastically lowered their expectations recently. I'm saying Wright doesn't show it. ... P.P.S.: Wright also notes, without irony, that Iraq is "incapable of providing enough refined fuel amid a car-buying boom that has put an estimated 1 million more vehicles on the road." [Emph. added] A "car-buying boom"--another shocking failure! Don't they know about global warming? "