Another take on the relative magnitude (and timing) of the job displacing versus job creating effects.

http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~trefler/fta.pdf

I'd be curious about how the quality of the highly-segmented copyediting compares with standard copyediting. In many fields, excessive division of labor turns out to be suboptimal for quality and productivity (see Michael Hammer's work on business process re-engineering)

First off, to Dan: I don't want to be accused of "looking on the bright side" (hate that), but your blog output and its fiesty/snarky (love that) tone are all way up since your denial of tenure. As a loyal, but sometimes frustrated reader, I just want to say welcome back.

Re. David's point about the value of dividing this labor up in such an odd way, I'll add my two-cents as a former copy editor. Whatever the immediate task at hand (who wants to be the "comma guy"?) it's always a good thing to have multiple sets of eyes going over raw text. Someone is bound to query a typo or odd turn of phrase and it is much more likely to be fixed.

What's fascinating to me right now is how suddenly--was that a giant sucking sound in the direction of the Indian Ocean?--everyone I know has a story about outsourcing some function to India. As an old India hand I find much more interest in the place and am asked what to expect by friends and relatives about to go on business (as if I would even know, having not been back for almost a decade).

As with all bandwagons, the early rush to get on will make for some hilarious disasters, as people get involved in ventures they ought not to, lest they appear "behind the curve." Indian reform is already showing signs of stalling out under the new Congress raj (remember: we're still essentially running on the momentum of the ex BJP regime). Way too soon to say where any of this is going. I'm looking forward to talking with some of these pioneering execs I know AFTER they get back from South Asia.

Dan, you make a great clearing house for all this word of mouth info. You'll make it to the Daily Show yet!

"that worldwide sourcing of IT services and software generated 257,042 new U.S. jobs in 2005."

Show me the list of jobs!!

I think much of what we get from the government and think tanks is just statistical baloney.

Average wages are up - emphasis on average.

What the economists tell us...

"Trade increases propsperity"

What the economists should tell us....

"Trade increases prosperity for some and devastates others."

Impacts?

Universities in Ohio are complaining about not getting enough money from the taxpayers. Problem is, Ohio is still, for all real purposes, in a recession. The taxpayers are busy filing bankruptcy petitions.

Ah ha, even professors are suffering.

IT employment remains 25% below the peak in 2000 even with the few jobs created this year. Let's see, 250k new jobs, but they requested 125k visas. Doesn't sound like very impressive job creation at all. Certainly not here anyway.

Apparently, your e-mailer is unaware of the find-replace command, a pretty essential feature of Microsoft Word. That's all it takes to handle the two spaces after a period problem. If that Indian firm really has one person doing that job, that would actually be rather unproductive.

A close reading raises the possibility that "the creation of more than 419,000 jobs" could mean 419,000 part-time, reduced benefit Wallmart-type jobs or anything else.

There is no assertion in the text that skilled jobs are being created.

Likewise, nowhere is it even suggested that the wages of these newly created jobs are equal to or greater than the jobs lost to outsourcing.

Any particular reason why the actual writing of the text of the book couldn't be outsourced to India as well? I have met some very good theortical people who graduated from Indian universities. What exactly would the United States do then?

In a larger sense: we have used up all the oil, iron ore, and easily exploitable land in the United States. We replaced the income from same with work of the mind. Now we are sending work of the mind to cheaper countries. What exactly is the competitive advantage of the United States at this point? What do we do better than anyone else, except make fighter/bombers (and if Russia and Japan were to collaborate on that last...).

I am serious - what exactly?

Cranky

Interesting post. I was wondring if anyone read Paul Krugman's column from a week or two back? He has become pessimistic since his days arguing against the anti-globalizers.

He's still not against outsourcing or "globalization" but he does think it's hurting the American middle class, unfortunately.

I agree with him. I disagree with Senator Shumer and protectionists when they argue that Indians don't deserve those jobs, if they can do the work. How can one argue that Americans are inherently more deserving than Indians?

However, I know some of the money being saved by paying the Indians less than Americans for the same amount of work is not being plowed back into investment and innovation and education. It's lining some rich guy's pockets. Still, as Krugman points out, what can you do?

Cranky: we make the best lawyers and lobbyists inthe world.

Peter K: it is interesting to see Krugman come close to eating crow

The free traders scoffed at the loss of 4+ million manufacturing jobs, but suddently the bankruptcies of Delta and Delphi got them all excited.

The political backlash is coming.

Good article today in the Detroit Free Press on-line about Michigan's lame economy and the 50/50 chance that it will recover and go into a death spiral.

Where does one sign up for all these new jobs; what a load of horseshit.

Dan:

I followed the link and read the report, it is horse@#$%.

It is assumption piled on assuptions piled on assumptions.

costs are lower therefore this happens therefore that happens therefore the GDP goes up, therefore inflation goes down therefore real wages go up etc, etc, ad nauseum

This reminds me of some pro formas I have seen for convention centers, sports stadiums, economic development organizations, etc. If all of these proformas came true this country would have a trillion jobs.

It is all horse@#$%.

Cranky Observer,
Just one point. The benefits of trade do not depend upon competetive advantage. They depend upon comparative advantage. Time to take another look at Ricardo perhaps?

I'm a freelance copy editor. My experience has not been as glowing as that of the book author who raves about the wonders of "offshored" editing. Many times I have had to repair the mangling done by offshore companies, resulting (presumably) in increased costs for Gargantuan Publishers, Inc. That is, if GP, Inc. gives a d*&% about quality at all, which many of them simply don't.

Not being familiar, I can't address any real or puffed up or outright lying stats about whether offshore book production loses American copy editor jobs. I have not received any questionnaires from the gov't that ask me how I'm doing. My colleagues frequently voice concerns, and my sense is that it can't help but do so.

Another thing I assume it can't help but do is suppress American copy editor/proofreader pay. (Economists can explain the mechanisms better than I.) The pay I'm offered for some jobs is appalling (if I'm in a bad mood) or hilarious (if I'm in a good mood), and I'm not alone. Much worry and discussion and agitation goes on among freelances regarding the difficulties of getting paid at a level appropriate to their skills, training, and experience.

As you can imagine, it can be a sensitive subject among us copy editors and proofreaders.

Your friends comments on the strengths of the publishing process overseas outlines something that will hit us hard. A large number of our white collar and professional niches are protected, the labor "market" applies only to some industries and jobs. New technologies have the potential to radically alter and improve certain processes. When "backwards" countries start to take up some of the choicest work they will do so in ways that are new. Use of the cellphone and it's evolution as a computer portal are an example. We are going to see quite bit of shakeup and "creative destruction."

Global Insight ran the Wal-Mart econ conference and came up with all sorts of positive attributes for Wal-M. In fact, the attributes looked a little too good to my eye.

The independent economists at the same conference really hammered Wal-M.