Friday, January 6, 2006
previous entry | main | next entry | TrackBack (0)
"Unassisted human intuition is a bomb"
1) Experts are really bad at making predictions; andToday, Carl Bialik -- the Wall Street Journal's Numbers Guy -- has a follow-up story that corrects one potential misperception about the utility of experts: they might not be great predictors, but they are still better informed than you are -- which means they are still better predictors.
The New Yorker's review of [Tetlock's] book surveyed the grim state of expert political predictions and concluded by advising readers, "Think for yourself." Prof. Tetlock isn't sure he agrees with that advice. He pointed out an exercise he conducted in the course of his research, in which he gave Berkeley undergraduates brief reports from Facts on File about political hot spots, then asked them to make forecasts. Their predictions -- based on far less background knowledge than his pundits called upon -- were the worst he encountered, even less accurate than the worst hedgehogs. "Unassisted human intuition is a bomb here," Prof. Tetlock told me.And that's your quote of the day.
posted by Dan on 01.06.06 at 01:12 PM
Really, the only new piece of information here is that someone can take a photograph that makes Scarlet Johannson look that unattractive.posted by: dave on 01.06.06 at 01:12 PM [permalink]
Really, the only new piece of information here is that someone can take a photograph that makes Scarlet Johannson look that unattractive.
It may not be her most flattering photo, but to call her "unattractive" makes me raise an eyebrow. I would be glad to escort that "unattractive" woman out for a night on the town--if I could afford it.posted by: Yagij on 01.06.06 at 01:12 PM [permalink]
But no argument about the Salma Hayek picture, I hope? My, my, my. Dan, there is definite correlation between the number of Salma links on your pages and my tendency to stick around and do the heavy reading ...posted by: Big Canadian on 01.06.06 at 01:12 PM [permalink]
Post a Comment: