Tuesday, February 7, 2006

previous entry | main | next entry | TrackBack (0)


What is the future of GMOs?

Edward Alden, Jeremy Grant and Raphael Minder report in the Financial Times that the WTO has just issued a ruling on genetically modified foods:

The World Trade Organisation ruled yesterday that European restrictions on the introduction of genetically-modified foods violated international trade rules, finding there was no scientific justification for Europe’s failure to allow use of new varieties of corn, soybeans and cotton.

The ruling was a victory for Washington in a long-running dispute that has pitted US faith in the benefits of the new crops against widespread consumer resistance in Europe.

It was immediately welcomed by US farmers and the biotechnology industry, but castigated by environmental and consumer groups who charged the ruling was a blatant example of international trade rules running roughshod over democratic decisions aimed at protecting consumer health and safety.

A US trade official, briefing reporters on the confidential decision that was released to the countries involved in the dispute late yesterday, said: “We’re please with the outcome. We’re not at the end of the road, but it’s a significant milestone.”

The EU would not comment on the ruling, which Brussels could appeal against, after the final report is issued in a few months.

The US, along with Canada and Argentina, launched the case in 2003 hoping that a favourable ruling by the WTO would prevent European-style restrictions on GM foods from spreading to Africa, China and other parts of the world. “One of the reasons we brought this case was because of the chilling effect the EU moratorium has had on the adoption of biotechnology,” the official said.

The immediate practical effect of the ruling is unclear. The European Commission halted the approval of new GM varieties in 1998, but began limited approvals again in May 2004, after the US launched the WTO case. Nearly two dozen applications remain in the pipeline.

The WTO decision also found against separate national bans established by Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Luxembourg, which have refused to allow even those GM varieties approved by Brussels. Those national restrictions have remained in place even after the moratorium was lifted in 2004.

I cut and paste from the FT a fair amount, so et me help them out and post what the practical effect will be on the various players:
1) The effect on the EU is pretty much nil. They'll appeal, and probably lose their appeal, and then face punitive sanctions from the US, Canada, and Argentina. Just as with hormone-treated beef, the EU will suffer the sanctions rather than comply, given public attitudes about GM foods in Europe.

2) The effect on the US -- and biotech firms -- is slightly better than nil. They won't be able to crack open the EU market -- but the decision will serve as a useful precedent in dealing with the rest of the world, which does not want to be the target of WTO-approved sanctions. Countries that rely heavily on ag exports to the EU won't budge, but it could have a effect on other countries.

3) The effect on the WTO is slightly worse than nil. Every time the WTO issues a ruling and the response is non-compliance, it takes a hit. That's what is going to happen here. [So they should have ruled the opposite way?--ed. No, they made the right call on the merits of the case-- it's just that I'm pretty sure the WTO would have preferred not to rule on this case at all. For them, it's a lose-lose situation.]

4) The effect on environmental NGOs depends on what you believe they want. In terms of outcomes, the effect is pretty bad, because it increases the likelihood that more states will allow GMO use. In terms of process, the effect is pretty good, because they'll be able to use the WTO ruling to raise lots and lots of money.

5) I have no idea how this will affect human-animal hybrids.

[Sounds like you support the EU position--ed. Oh, no, I think the EU approach to GMOs is daft -- that, however, doesn't matter when you control a $11 trillion economy.]


posted by Dan on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM




Comments:

Dan,

You sort of missed the significantly more important story here...

For all of the good from increased free trade and globalization, this case is an example of the limits and potential dangers of this progress without a concurrent process of managing the political issues that are wrapped in many of these issues.

Whether you personally believe GMOs carry scientific or human health risks, there is clearly a political element to determining whether a country should use it. The WTO is making decisions without considering this political element, because it doesn't have the capacity of doing so. Instead, it is imposing one set of values onto a democracy, without a process in place for negotiating the values in an international fashion.

One could easily envision other products (stem cell therapies, abortion drugs, etc.) that the US may find objectionable-- should the WTO dictate to us that consumers must have access even if we have an elected government that has chosen otherwise?

For the WTO and globalization to be truly successful in the long run, the economic organization needs to be coupled with a political one.

posted by: Rick Latshaw on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Rick with all due respect I completely disagree. There is simply no scientific basis for not consuming genetically modified foods. In fact there are reasons to believe this food is actually safer because it is resistant to insects etc and requires less pesticide use.

The issue was always political. It was about protectionism for european farmers. Through political pressure this protectionism has now been rectified.

posted by: human growth hormone on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Rick,

A little food for thought (pun intended)

One concern that does exist is the control of GMO crops- there have been multiple instances where germinal seeds have been found outside of the initial growing zones, as they have been blown by the wind to other areas.

There is risk that these GMOs spread natively (particularly given their advantages of resistance) and the question then becomes how do both the crops and insects adapt in this uncontrolled environment. Like antibiotic resistance in hunmans when antibiotics are overused, the same could become true for pesticides or insects.

I agree that the overwhelming concern has been protecting European farmers. But the WTO is forcing countries to accept an industry that, despite your unsubstantiated claim, does have some very important scientific unknowns.

posted by: Rick Latshaw on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



HGH-

One point of clarification- the scientific risk I am referring to is not about consuming the crops (I agree with you there), but rather growing them and the impact on the future.

These are scientific unknowns, which are in turn, a scientific risk.

posted by: HGH on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Isn't it funny that EU trust science to modify humans but not crops?
WTA can't rule on stem cells because their isn't a large enough market.

posted by: Huggy on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



WTO not WTA. Sorry about the typo.

posted by: Huggy on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Huggy,

Its a hypothetical- trying to think a little outside the box...

posted by: Rick Latswhaw on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



I think this post and its comments have a very American bent to it. Its all about whether the stuff is safe. Not about whether it tastes the same when cooked. Europeans are willing to spend more for food and eat less processed foods. Americans want to be able to eat cheap. Its a difference in philosophy. I'm sympathetic to the Europeans desire to have the freedom to eat the way they choose even if I don't want to spend that much money eating myself.

When the attitudes are as overwhelming in Europe as they are, it isn't about protectionism. Its about being allowed to eat the things you want to eat.

posted by: Chad on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Chad, I think you are being way too general about European food tastes. As a national characteristic I would agree with you that France and to a lesser extent Italians spend more and eat fewer processed foods. Perhaps some Germans - but much or even most of what Germans eat is highly processed and horrible. It's not a patch on French food for quality.

The UK has some of the worst food on earth - particularly the low-end pub food. This is so bad that McDonalds is actually quite a bit better.

I'll acknowledge that you can find bad food in any country. I recall a glutinous goose stew I choked down in a small town near Lyon once which might be the worst thing I ever tried to eat. But I've had a fair sampling of British pub grub before I gave up and to be frank, the usual food available in the US at the price point is far better.

The UK does have excellent food of course. I'm a big fan of something called a 'gastropub' - usually a slightly upscale pub which offers good food, wine, and beer. And if you go high end UK restaurants are as good as any - though they cost a bomb.

posted by: Don Stadler on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Chad: How does banning stuff increase choice? How does the availability of more options prevent them from choosing the option they prefer?

Or are you saying that the "overwhelming" market demand for non-GM food in Europe is nevertheless insufficient for it to compete with GM equivalents? I think what you mean by "overwhelming" is not what the word is ordinarily taken to mean.

Why ban something nobody wants? If they really don't want it, they won't buy it anyway. No, it's banned because they're afraid people will want it.

Personally, I think people who object to GM foods are, in essence, afraid of witchcraft.

posted by: P. Froward on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



If the greenies have their say, we would all be eating organic food, which is good and expensive. I think the Euros should label the food, and raise the concerns that GM food may or may not cause cancer. The statement is true since everything we ingest, the air we breathe, may or may not cause illness. Since nobody will want unhealthy food, nobody will buy the GM food.

posted by: ic on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



You know the Republican war on science? The EU is fighting a same kind of war. The only thing the WTO says is: hey, science does not say that gmo's are more dangerous than "normal" foods. So from a scientific point of view there is no reason to block imports. The fact that Europe still does means that not science but good old protectionism is the case here. And i always thought that the WTO is there to eliminate protectionism. This is what it does and it has science on here side. For me this underscores the credebility of that organisation. Given all the scientific reports it could not rule otherwise. It's for Europe to stop it's war on science.

posted by: ivan on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



HGH and Ivan,
Doesn't the pervasive opposition to GMOs among the general European electorate suggest that it's not, in fact, protectionism that's primarily driving these policies? When the U.S. imposes protectionist policies, it's usually because there's acute demand for them among a small subset of affected actors while the spirit of opposition is widespread but diffuse and weak (trying to remember my poli sci jargon here). In Europe's case, consumers outnumber farmers, and consumers would economically benefit, in theory, from lower prices and more options, but it's the consumers who are strongly opposed to GMOs.

The interesting question to me is why Dan Drezner is so blase about an international organization trying to impose its rules on sovereign nation-states and overrule the express political will of democratic majorities in those nations. Aren't you conservative-libertarian types supposed to hate that sort of thing? Does it really hinge on whether you think the true motive was special-interest protectionism or majoritarian decision-making, and if so, how do you decide which it was? OR do you not care - if the world body decides the nation-state's majority is simply wrong on the merits, should it be okay to overrule them? Rick Latshaw's hypothetical is apposite here - and it's more than just a hypothetical. Dispute resolution bodies have already ruled that consumer-protection laws in the U.S., such as keeping out asbestos-laden products from Canada, were "non-tariff barriers to trade" and thus illegal.

posted by: The Navigator on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Aren't you conservative-libertarian types supposed to hate that sort of thing?

Uh, no. "Libertarian types" don't believe in "express political will of democratic majorities in those nations." "Libertarian types" believe in individual choice, not collective "choice."


(Also, the WTO neither "imposes" nor "overrules" anything. It simply says that other states can penalize you if you chose to engage in illicit behavior.)

posted by: David Nieporent on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



The interesting question to me is why Dan Drezner is so blase about an international organization trying to impose its rules on sovereign nation-states and overrule the express political will of democratic majorities in those nations.

Those "sovereign nation-states" chose to join the WTO. If their people hate the rulings so much, then those nations should leave the WTO.

Oh, and with regard to taste, for corn, soybeans, etc., there's no difference. Only naive consumers would think that there is.

posted by: Neema on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



The only thing the WTO says is: hey, science does not say that gmo's are more dangerous than "normal" foods.

This is exactly my point. The WTO is purely a trading organization and does not have the people or statute to perform these types of organizations. They can't do this assessment because its not part of their limited scope. The WTO concept needs to be part of a larger organization that is equipped to deal with the larger scientific, political and moral questions.

posted by: Rick Latwshaw on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



The only thing the WTO says is: hey, science does not say that gmo's are more dangerous than "normal" foods.

This is exactly my point. The WTO is purely a trading organization and does not have the people or statute to perform these types of organizations. They can't do this assessment because its not part of their limited scope. The WTO concept needs to be part of a larger organization that is equipped to deal with the larger scientific, political and moral questions.

posted by: Rick Latwshaw on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]



Neema,

GMO and non-GMO will taste the same if isogenic and grown under comparable conditions (In general...I can imagine making a GM food taste different on purpose, and we want the crops to taste different to insects). But the subset of varieties that are GM is small enough that there are not GM versions of other varieties that taste different.

But so what? This is only a problem if the GM-ness somehow prevents farmers from growing those varieties for those who prefer that taste...and are willing to pay for it.

posted by: Jim Hu on 02.07.06 at 07:54 PM [permalink]






Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:




Comments:


Remember your info?