Thursday, February 9, 2006

previous entry | main | next entry | TrackBack (0)


United States 2, Terrorists with shoe bombs, 0

So apparently an Al Qaeda plot to use shoe bombs to hijack a plane and fly it into LA's Library tower was thwarted in 2002. A few things are interesting about this:

1) Using shoe bombs are apparently the terrorist equivalent of walking under a ladder.

2) Al Qaeda's outsourcing operations haven't gone all that well. According to ABC News:

Six months after the 9/11 attacks, al Qaeda found itself under siege in Afghanistan. So Khalid Sheik Mohammed decided to contract out the Los Angeles attack. He turned to a terrorist named Hambali, the leader of an al Qaeda affiliate in Southeast Asia.

"Rather than use Arab hijackers as he had on September the 11," Bush said, "Khalid Sheikh Mohammed sought out young men from Southeast Asia whom he believed would not arouse as much suspicion."

ABC News has learned Hambali recruited at least four men, including a pilot. Al Qaeda came up with a plan to break open a secure cockpit door using shoe bombs like those worn by al Qaeda operative Richard Reid before he tried to blow up an airliner in 2001.

"They are able to figure out what are the obstacles in front of them and figure out ways around those obstacles and they can do it in real time," said Dick Clarke, former White House counterterrorism czar and now an ABC News consultant.

Disaster was averted when one of Hambali's hijackers was captured in early 2002 by officials in an unnamed country, and he began identifying other members of the plot. Within five months, Hambali was arrested.

Clarke, in the quote, wants to make it appear that Al Qaeda is ultra-nimble and adaptive, and so therefore hard to defeat. This overlooks the fact that any group Al Qaeda outsources to is likely to be more incompetent than Al Qaeda. So this story puts me in a much better mood than Clarke.

3) Time's Brian Bennett and Matthew Cooper speculate on the politics of the disclosure: "The timing of the foiled plot's disclosure, coming as it did as the Administration defends its controversial wiretapping program, struck many observers as more than a little curious." None of these observers are actually named, but the rest of the paragraph suggests that while the reveal was political in the global sense, I tend to doubt it was consciously timed to deal with Bush's current difficulties on the anti-terrorism front:

[A]nother senior Administration official told TIME: "The speech was about international cooperation and to show that actions taken have real consequences." Said the official, "You intrepid journalists can deduce whether there's a connection between the NSA program and (the West coast plot). Was there a domestic component?" The answer, given that all the alleged cell leaders were captured overseas, would seem to be no.
This brings us to the elements of the Time story that are much more disturbing -- the escape of the Al Qaeda terrorists from Yemen:
But at the same time the Administration was chest-thumping about this victory in the war on terror, [counter-terrorism czar Frances Fragos] Townsend had to acknowledge that it is grappling with one of the worst examples of non-cooperation. Over the weekend, 13 convicted Al Qaeda members being held in a Yemeni jail escaped, including the reputed mastermind of the October 2000 attack on the U.S.S. Cole. Townsend acknowledged that the jailbreak is "of enormous concern to us, especially given the capabilities and the expertise of the people who were there." All 13 had been housed together, she said, and "we are disappointed that their restrictions in prison weren't more stringent." When asked why the U.S. wasn't keeping closer tabs on how the Al Qaeda prisoners were being incarcerated in Yemen, a U.S. law enforcement official said, "that assumes the Yemenis care what we think."

Still, the U.S., which has been caught off guard by everything from the flooding of New Orleans to the victory of Hamas, seemed stupified to discover that the Yemenis were allowing the Al Qaeda prisoners to be housed together and to communicate freely. The lax security measures stand in sharp contrast to the isolation of prisoners kept at American controlled facilities in Guantanamo Bay and around the globe.

posted by Dan on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM




Comments:

"...that while the reveal was political in the global sense, I tend to doubt it was consciously timed to deal with Bush's current difficulties on the anti-terrorism front"

You can't be serious. "Politcal in the global sense"? It's political in every sense. The administration is under the gun for it's wiretapping, Iraq, budget follies, energy policy, etc. etc. ad naseum. Magically, full dislosure of a terror plot from four years ago.

"Thank you President Bush. Without you to remind us of what we're to fear, there'd only be you."

posted by: flitter on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



If this was the big Al Quaeda secret plan, they are more stupid then I thought. Try that on a modern plane, shoe bomb or no, and the passangers will shread the terrorists.

posted by: Nicholas Weaver on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



I agree with Nicholas. I'm a little sceptical -- give the terrorists a little more credit. They already did the plane hijackings and tried the shoe bomb and that's the one thing that the Americans are protecting themselves against (the last attack). American counter-terrorism is a joke b/c they don't understand militant Islam. The terrorists know better and will plan a different next attack.

posted by: amechad on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



Exactly how, in the post-9/11 environment, would a terrorist manage to "hijack" an airplane with a shoe bomb?

Funny how these revelations pop up just as W Bush's poll numbers drop. Every single time. And like Charlie Brown with the football, the traditional media falls for it _every single time_.

Cranky

posted by: Cranky Observer on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



"Exactly how, in the post-9/11 environment, would a terrorist manage to "hijack" an airplane with a shoe bomb? "

Um, by using it to blow off the secure cockpit door, thereby injuring or killing the pilots within? Granted, it's not brilliant (I would think you would have as much chance of blowing the plane open somehow and depressurizing). However, remember the 9/11 attacks were suicide missions too - Al Queda isn't too picky on how you die, just that you do die, for them.

posted by: Don Mynack on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



> Um, by using it to blow off the secure
> cockpit door, thereby injuring or killing
> the pilots within?

About 7 months after 9/11 a gate agent upgraded me to first class on a long flight. I thought she had done me a favor until I realized the seat was the first row, aisle. I must have had a sickly look as I sat down because the flight attendent asked me what was wrong. I replied: "I just realized the free upgrade I got requires me to throw myself in front of any bad guys to give you time to brain them with the fire extinguisher". She gave me a hard look and said, "That's right".

No one can hijack a plane with a bomb anymore. If fact, I doubt any mode of transportation with mass destruction potential will be hijacked any time in the next 1000 years - the passengers just won't allow it.

McClellen was hit with this yesterday and all he could do was say, "Uh. Uh. I am not going to comment on Homeland Security issues".

Cranky

posted by: Cranky Observer on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



You may want to reviw this blog:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9665308/#051012a

This is too stupid; wait four years to release this info; he must think the public is dumber than the AG.

posted by: dan on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



Um, by using it to blow off the secure cockpit door, thereby injuring or killing the pilots within?

Problem #1: as you mention, you have a chance of actually wrecking the airplane when you do this. While that might be OK with al-Qaeda in the general sense, it's not really a successful "hijacking", in the sense that they now don't have either (1) a bunch of hostages, or (2) an airliner to crash into their target -- and they were probably after one of those two if they were trying to hijack the plane in the first place.

Problem #2: even if the aircraft is airworthy afterward, using a bomb -- even a small one -- to blow a door open is not subtle. Someone is going to notice, and that means passengers are going to get suspicious, and that means the hijacker is screwed, barring the highly unlikely outcome of him being able to kill everyone on the plane before they can take him out.

Or, I suppose, the outcome of the passengers all assuming that the hijackers just want them as hostages and not trying to resist -- but I can't picture a whole planeload of passengers all choosing to make that bet post-9/11.

posted by: cwp on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



Of course, just because a couple of shoe bombers would find it nigh-impossible to hijack a plane doesn't mean they couldn't destroy it -- and that's still something we should have a very serious interest in foiling, because while losing a couple of hundred people is better than losing a couple of thousand, it's still disastrous.

posted by: cwp on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



> Of course, just because a couple of shoe
> bombers would find it nigh-impossible to
> hijack a plane doesn't mean they couldn't
> destroy it -

If the hijacker has already defeated the first and second level security designed to prevent that pre-takeoff then it is too late - there is nothing to stop him from destroying the aircraft.

All this is meaningless drivel anyway. Assuming there is still an organized al Quida, which itself is questionable, one thing is clear: they don't do the same thing two times. Particularly not when they see that their target is preparing for that possibility.

Cranky

posted by: Cranky Observer on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



If the hijacker has already defeated the first and second level security designed to prevent that pre-takeoff then it is too late - there is nothing to stop him from destroying the aircraft.

That was sort of the point of the press release -- that they foiled the attack before the people got on the plane.

I don't entirely follow your complaint -- are you saying there was no danger of the hijacking succeeding? I agree with that much. Are you saying there was no danger to the aircraft passengers, even if the hijacking couldn't possibly succeed? That I don't agree with -- unless the entire report is fraudulent from beginning to end, which is possible. Are you saying that Bush released the news when he did to give his poll numbers a boost? Almost certainly, but it doesn't follow from that that we shouldn't be concerned about people trying to hijack airliners.

Or are you just cranky? :)

posted by: cwp on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



Shoe bomb Terrorist hijacker?

That's silly.

There's a smell to this story.

posted by: James on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



One thing I just don't understand. Why are so many addicted to the 'hijack a airplane' scenario. Anyone seen the ample lines of passengers queued up before the first detector site? Do you really think that it is possible to prevent some whack job from detonating something there, as well as a dozen (hundred?) other targets that would come to mind? How can you believe all this talk about 'no attacks since 9-11', and then complain about innumerable immigrants crossing the porous borders? It really doesn't add up to me. Sorry if I just can't buy the "He's made it safe for us!" line.

posted by: juan arturo on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



It's rather hilarious to note how satisfied critics of the president are when the suggestion is that ordinary Americans are well-suited to defeat terrorists on planes. It's rather like thinking a 'Megans Law' for declared AQ operatives would be all we vigilant Yanks would need to take down the cells.

I don't suppose any of you would even think about the regulations required of certified air marshals. So long as the terrorists are 'stupid', anything Joe Sixpack might do to foil them is OK.

Here's a legalistic question. If you push *69 on your neighbor's phone, can she sue you?

posted by: Cobb on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]



I'm surprised that so few have noted that there was a similar escape from Yemen prisons in 2003. And it was of suspects in the Cole bombing then too.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,83890,00.html

posted by: DS on 02.09.06 at 09:57 PM [permalink]






Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:




Comments:


Remember your info?