Monday, February 27, 2006

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For once, I was ahead of the curve

As part of its cover package on India, Newsweek's Keith Naughton writes about the interesting fact that offshore outsourcing to India is not the political hot potato it used to be:

Not long ago, what seemed most possible was that India would steal the jobs of American workers. But as George W. Bush visits there this week, he'll find a maturing economy that is no longer all about call centers and basic tech support. Now big American investment banks and drugmakers are joining tech firms on the passage to India. R&D centers are springing up so fast that there's now a shortage of Indian engineers. And the stigma of outsourcing jobs to India is disappearing. American companies once afraid to put their names on the doors of their Indian offices now issue press releases touting their latest investments there. "American firms have gotten over their anxiety about India," says financial-services consultant Harrell Smith of Celent Communications. "Now the new anxiety is if you're not in India."

What happened to the outsourcing backlash? It has been muted by the fact that India didn't suck Silicon Valley dry after all. Actually, U.S. tech employment is growing. There are 17 percent more tech workers in the United States today than back in the bubble days of 1999, says a new study by the Association for Computing Machinery. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that the U.S. economy will add 1 million tech jobs over the next decade, a 30 percent increase. "Everyone was worried about the offshoring bogeyman," says Moshe Vardi, an author of the ACM study. "But the big whoosh of jobs to India never happened.'' Indeed, that gush slowed to a steady stream once American companies realized it's tough to set up shop in a country with bad roads and a patchy power grid. Lately, American consulting firms that once predicted runaway growth in outsourcing to India have been slashing their estimates by half or more. Now American companies are hanging on to the high-skilled work that requires face-to-face interaction, while everything that can be done "over the wire" gets shipped offshore.

Wow, you learn something new every day. Oh, wait.....

posted by Dan on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM




Comments:

Wait until the next recession.....

posted by: save_the_rustbelt on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



offshore outsourcing to India is not the political hot potato

Not if Lou Dobbs has anything to say about it.

And say about it and say about it and say about it....

SMG

posted by: SteveMG on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



Dan,
I couldnt agree with you more! I dont know who scares me more the neo-cons or the neo-protectionists.

posted by: centrist on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



"hanging on to the high-skilled work that requires face-to-face interaction, while everything that can be done "over the wire" gets shipped offshore." This is simplistic, in that it assumes that the high-skilled work always requires face-to-face interaction while things that can be done "over the wire" are inherently low skilled--an attempt to compress two dimensions into one. In reality, there are:

1)Low-skilled face-to-face jobs (discount store cashier)
2)High-skilled face-to-face jobs (business-to-business salesperson)
3)Low-skilled over-the-wire jobs (data entry)
4)High-skilled over-the-wire jobs (embedded systems design)

posted by: David Foster on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



The irony is more face-to-face work is low tech than high.

17 percent more tech workers in the United States today than back in the bubble days of 1999

Utterly false. There were 25% fewer tech workers in 2004 and there were 18% fewer tech workers in 2005 than in 2000. Check the BLS statistics.

posted by: Lord on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



Still pushing that "artificially high employment" garbage? Look at the historical statistics. There was no splurge, only continued growth on a linear trend. Next you will start measuring the economy trough to trough and then we can complain about how hard we work!

posted by: Lord on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



When have we Americans thought we had a natural born entitlement to a particular job? It isn't as though work goes away -- there is always more work in America, not less. It may not be the kind of work that you want or in the location you want, but there is far more variety in the economy today for most people than at virtually any time in American history. The opportunities are greater today than at most times in our history. Perhaps not for everybody, but for most people.

As for India, I have a question. Which is better, an India with a lot of middle class people, or an India without a lot of middle class people? Who, exactly, prefers the latter?

posted by: TigerHawk on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]



Dan, you need to distinguished between speculative opinions, which is what you had to offer, and facts, which is what this study seem to offer.

posted by: Concerned Citizen on 02.27.06 at 07:15 PM [permalink]






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