Kudos for paying attention to our number 1 trading partner, a country with a 100 million plus people, which is heavily impacting on US in a way that mid-East turmoil never could (and I include the impact of oil prices)

Mexican law provides for a full recount ONLY when there is evidence of fraud. AMLO had ample opportunity to provide evidence and couldn't find any. Thousands of international observers say it was a very clean election. AMLO's strategy is to cause enough civil unrest to influence the election tribunal. His power over his followers is awesome. If AMLO says there was fraud, they believe it. This is a very irresponsible politician who will stop at nothing to win. It scares me to think of a Mexico with "El Peje" at the helm.

Mitchell: according to our 2005 trade figures, Mexico ranks 2nd in exports from the US and 3rd in exports to the US. Our other, less populous neighbor ranks first in both categories.

The full table, for your amusement.

Mexico should do what most of the democrcies in Latin America: require a percentage threshhold for a candidate to reach, otherwise a runoff takes place.

Claderon could have also coopted AMLO's supporters by also calling for a full recount. At worst, he would have lost, but still have come across as a classy statesman. At best, he could have confirmed his victory and emerged with a stronger mandate.

As it is, he'll probably preside over a country and have a very weak mandate while the nation remains riven with divisions.

I stand corrected on the trade numbers.

It's a non-event and will blow over soon enough.

Randy,
You're correct that Calderón might have gained some "popularity points" by calling for a full recount. It would been safe for him to do so because Mexican law does not permit a full recount in the absence of evidence of fraud. The larger point is that AMLO endangers democracy by threatening violence if he doesn't get his way. He has enough fanatical followers to carry out this threat. Can there be any doubt how he would act if he DOES get his way? The future of democracy in Mexico is at stake. The best outcome of the current crisis is that the election tribunal commands enough respect among rank-and-file PRDistas that they back down and encourage AMLO to become a member of the "loyal opposition."

Let's not forget that this is only the second free election in Mexico's history and the first close one. The constitution was written when one party controlled everything, and they never contemplated the possibility of three competitive parties. Even the simple majority needed to pass any law is nearly impossible with three competitive parties. This of course includes election law.

The only stable outcome is that the three parties merge into two. Personally, I think this is the most likely outcome. Gradually, the remaining PRIstas will join PAN or PRD, and the country will split more or less along class lines. The addition of some middle class Mexicans to the PRD will soften their positions on some issues, and they'll gradually resemble the Democrats more than the Socialists.

I don't think Mexico is headed towards a two-party system too quickly, OpenBorder.

AMLO is cementing his political credentials by showing the establishment that he has followers and plenty of power -- and gunning for a position somewhere within the system.

The winning PAN party will wisely offer him a cushy government post where everyone comes out ahead: AMLO shows his followers he was a tough guy and stood up to the establishment (and will survive for a future battle); PAN and society as a whole show political maturity by incorporating AMLO into the system despite his loss.

I think Mexico is farther along the process of being a "real" democracy (unlike much of the rest of the region) than most of you give it credit for.

SJL,
Mexico IS a real democracy. Where we differ (and I very much appreciate your thoughts on this) is that I think AMLO is a serious threat to democracy and could set the country back about 80 years. I have listened to his speaches and seen the power he has over his hard-core followers. He will never accept a post in a PAN government. His method is to use civil unrest and threat of violence to get his way. He is a dangerous man.

Regardless, they still need to establish a minimum threshold to avoid a runoff. caldero really doesn't have a mandate and will have a tough time governing.

First things first: Mexican politics do not have the same level of maturity as, say, the US's, where Gore conceded defeat for the greater good -- knowing he deserved better answers than he got.

AMLO isn't quite up there with Gore, but consider that the role of president of Mexico (because of its constitution) gives him otherworldly power within the country, and is the path to unspeakable riches (a topic I'm surprised doesn't get more press). So it is understandable that AMLO is pushing hard to get what he considers access to a fair share of the pie.

Having said all that, I believe the Mexican political system is now mature enough to find a solution, and that'll be a great government post for AMLO. Of course, willing to concede I may prove to be a naive optimist on this one. But we agree that he is not the candidate in the best interests of the US or Mexico.

Randy wrote:

"Mexico should do what most of the democrcies in Latin America: require a percentage threshhold for a candidate to reach, otherwise a runoff takes place."

Most Latin American countries now require a majority (50% + 1), or else there is a top-two runoff. Costa Rica requires 40% for a first-round victory.

Neither provision is as clearly good an idea as it sounds. Much better are those that require a majority OR a given margin (with a runoff in the event the criteria are not reached in the first round).

More here.

Open Border Man said:

"The only stable outcome is that the three parties merge into two. Personally, I think this is the most likely outcome."

I will believe that when I see it. The PRI remains quite competitive in numerous states, and while it is possible that that will diminish after this national showing, I remain in "show me" mode. It could be quite successful--and also useful to either the PRD or the PAN, whichever is in power nationally at any given time in the future--as a pivot party that offers legislative support in exchange for patronage. Don't underestimate the ability of such a party to last for quite some time.