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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

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That Lopez Obrador has an interesting political strategy

Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s strategy to reverse the results in Mexico's presidential election is starting to confuse me. Consider this Financial Times story by Adam Thomson:

Ever since Mr López Obrador, leftwing candidate in the election for president on July 2, lost by a razor-thin 244,000 votes to Felipe Calderón of the ruling centre-right National Action party, he has been “fighting to save democracy”....

In a rare interview, Mr López Obrador told the Financial Times at the weekend that not only would his struggle continue but that it would also become more radical and incorporate new acts of “civil resistance” to press his case.

All this has come as little surprise to his critics, who brand the silver-haired 52-year-old simply as an unreformed leftist campaigner with an authoritarian streak and scant regard for legal process.

They would probably be unsurprised, too, to learn what Mr López Obrador is reading: Sources on the History of the Mexican Revolution, a large leather-bound book with gold leaf on the spine. “You have to know history to know what to do in circumstances . . .”, he says before tailing off into silence.

Mr López Obrador has been reading about José Vasconcelos, a prominent revolutionary figure who later put down his loss in the 1929 presidential election to fraud and called on supporters to begin an armed struggle. And like that of Vasconcelos, Mr López Obrador is aware that the story of his own struggle might be retold for future generations.

“Never in this country’s history has an opposition movement managed to bring together so many people,” he says. “This is a historic moment because the next few days will define the future of democracy in Mexico, the role of the institutions and respect for the constitution.”....

As a political strategy, however, most analysts believe the call for peaceful civil resistance is a big mistake. The resulting traffic chaos from the blockade of Reforma has annoyed many residents in the capital, which is by far Mr López Obrador’s biggest support base. An increasingly radical strategy may also alienate members of his own party, which did well at the legislative level. Before long, they argue, instead of becoming a new Vasconcelos, he may find himself a lonely – and insignificant – character.

Mr López Obrador admits that “there has been a drain of support” since he began his civil resistance campaign. He also accepts that less than half the population supports him in his struggle. In the capital, for example, he believes he now has the backing of 38 per cent of citizens.

But he insists that he had no option but to challenge the authorities. “You can’t stop them unless you take these kinds of steps. The way to fight fraud and to overcome the news blackout is what we are doing now,” he says. “If we hadn’t taken Reforma [the occupied avenue], we would not exist.” (emphases added)

If this Bloomberg report by Patrick Harrington and Adriana Arai is accurate, the sit-in in Mexico City cost his party votes in Chiapas.

If Lopez Obrador knows that his "permanent protest" campaign is causing him to lose support, and there is no indication that the protests to date are affecting the legal part of the electoral process, how is this Mexican standoff going to end?

posted by Dan on 08.22.06 at 07:52 AM

Comments:

Lopez Obrador would sure like to be selected President in 2006. But he likely knows that will not now happen.

He's creating the legend of the stolen election (always useful for a populist complaining about the rotten social order). That way, he can keep the status of "shadow president" until 2012 and keep his forces motivated through 2012. And getting the presidency in 2012 probably means more to this guy than how well his party does in other elections in 2006.

Six years is a long time to forget about traffic jams in Mexico City. Does anyone remember Al Gore's efforts to count just his votes in Florida who isn't otherwise in the tank for Bush?

And since this guy probably has a number of leftist intellectuals and writers in his pocket, those six years can be used to develop plausible conspiracy theories and tales of infamous corruption, backed up by articles in the popular press and the occasional best seller.

It's never too early to run for 2012, if you're young enough.

posted by: Appalled Moderate on 08.22.06 at 07:52 AM [permalink]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think AMLO has much respect for the democratic process. I have commented here before than "El Peje" is a threat to democracy in Mexico. His fiery speaches are directed at the most uneducated and poorest Mexicans, who believe every word. In spite of all evidence to the contrary, they genuinely believe that the election was stolen. Whether AMLO himself believes it is irrelevent: It's a means to gain power.

Most Mexicans feel great relief that he lost, given that he has only since the election shown his true colors. According to polls, that includes many of the people who voted for him. But there are roughly 10 million Mexicans who are angry about the allegedly stolen election, many of whom have no problems camping out on Paseo de la Reforma because they have no jobs and the mayor is giving them free food and shelter.

How will this end? AMLO clearly wants to provoke a confrontation with the army. This would enhance his martyr image and (he thinks) enhance his support among the middle class. Pres Fox has meticulously avoided sending troups near the protesters, but the army is in the airport. My prediction is that AMLO will try to "occupy" the airport during the Independence Day celebration in 3 weeks. In my opinion, it's unlikely that solders will fire on protesters. The solders are also from the poorest segment of society. But they are also unlikely to side with the protesters, since the army is by far the best job available to them. Most likely AMLO will succeed in closing down the airport for a time, but lose most of his remaining support in the process.

posted by: OpenBorderMan on 08.22.06 at 07:52 AM [permalink]

It does appear AMLO is reliving his past. From Tropical Messiah By Enrique Krauze, New Republic 19/6/06:

To a large extent, López Obrador built the PRD in Tabasco from the ground up: sleeping in poor communities, traveling through towns and villages, editing a combative newspaper. His first great success was the midterm elections of 1991. The PRI claimed complete victory, as always, but López Obrador protested the fraud and led an "exodus for democracy" to Mexico City. Five thousand peasants set out for the capital and camped in the Zócalo. The government of Carlos Salinas de Gortari succumbed to the pressure. López Obrador returned to Tabasco with a good harvest: three municipalities recognized for the PRD and the governor's imminent resignation...
...Two years later, following in the steps of Garrido and Madrazo, he ran for the governorship of Tabasco....He visited every municipality and met hundreds of thousands of citizens. "The people were fired up," he remembers. The elections were disputed, and, by a margin of barely 20,000 votes, victory was declared for Madrazo. López Obrador's sympathizers refused to accept the results. They occupied the Villahermosa town square, called for civil disobedience, and installed a parallel government.

...Faced with the imminent danger of repression, López Obrador dissolved the waiting masses in the town square of Villahermosa. Shortly afterward, he once again fled to Mexico City, where he displayed boxes of documents that contained proof of the electoral fraud in Tabasco.

What does this say about the future? Not sure. But a dramatic climb down, for the purpose of protecting his people, and a promise to always be around when there is injustice, seems like the likely approach after some more chest thumping. I can't imagine the guy believes he can take power -- he seems very versed on the history of his country and how it works, whatever his regard for the rule of law. The central government in Mexico has been remarkably stable since the 20s, and the military is not known for its interest in golpe del estado.

posted by: Appalled Moderate on 08.22.06 at 07:52 AM [permalink]

I'm not sure that Lopez Obrador is aware (or wants to be aware for that matter) of the fact that more than 67% of those who voted for him regret having done so. If elections were held today, he would most probably loose even against Madrazo (PRI’s candidate). His position is simply: "Democracy = President Lopez Obrador". Anything and everything else is FASCISM. He took the lead over his opponents before the July elections by insisting on his most absolute disapproval of other political parties' practices concerning abusing power, violating and making "tailored maid" laws, among other things. Today, the only reason for his being able to do what he is doing, is precisely his abuse of power. Mexico City is governed by Alejandro Encinas; a "Perredista" appointed by Lopez who allows and gives him every thinkable political support to do as he sees fit, regardless of the law. Any other group or citizens, wouldn't even had been allowed to take the city or would have been removed and turned to the authorities very, very long ago. However, Mexico City is the ONLY city, and Distrito Federal is the ONLY state where he can get away with this, as he has practically no followers anywhere else and makes more and more enemies as time goes by.

posted by: Cecilia Torres on 08.22.06 at 07:52 AM [permalink]

Paciencia. It'll blow over, and Mexico will be a better country for it.

posted by: St. James the Lesser on 08.22.06 at 07:52 AM [permalink]