Tuesday, July 3, 2007
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Pinch-hitting for Seth Mnookin....
Seth appears to be MIA today, so for the general good of Red Sox Nation, let's have some fun at Chass' expense.
Three weeks ago, Chass projected the following in his column:
[H]ere is one projection that could actually have some potential as a barometer. Even better, it could create some fun: At the rate at which the Yankees are slashing into Boston's lead in the American League East, they will pass the Red Sox in the standings by July 4.As July 4th is tomorrow, it's clear that Chass' projection ain't happening. To his credit, Chass is aware of this fact, and devotes today's column to explaining why he was wrong: "If They Had Done Their Job, the Yankees Could Have Led":
The target date arrives tomorrow, and the easy explanation for why the lead change will not happen is that the Yankees didnít maintain their rate of the first half of June. Had they done their job properly, the Yankees could have given their employer the best birthday present ever. But happy birthday anyway, George, and many more healthy ones.Let's crunch some numbers here. Consider the following:
1) When Chass wrote his first column, the Red Sox had a 9-1/2 game lead.Far be it for me to defend the New York Yankees, but expecting any team to reel off 19 wins in a row borders on the delusional.
[But what if the Yankees had "maintain[ed] their rate of the first half of June"?--ed. The Yankees did go 8-2 in their first 10 games of June. Had they maintained that pace... they would have gone 16-4 and remained 3 games back.]
Consider that, even after the fact, Chass thinks a 19-0 run was feasible. This indicates one of three possibilities:
1) Chass is really, really bad at math;posted by Dan on 07.03.07 at 01:20 PM
What? The New York Times has a sports page?posted by: Hei Lun Chan on 07.03.07 at 01:20 PM [permalink]
At the All-Star break in 1998, the Red Sox fired John McNamara and replaced him with Joe Morgan. The team then won 12 straight and 19 out of 20. Maybe Chass was expecting the Yankees to re-enact "Morgan's Miracle."posted by: Roger Sweeny on 07.03.07 at 01:20 PM [permalink]
Squants Vs Quants? or really really dumb people Vs common sense...posted by: Exiled from Beantown on 07.03.07 at 01:20 PM [permalink]
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