Wednesday, October 24, 2007
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My not-so-sunny predictions for U.S. trade policy
Policy Innovations -- "The central address for a fairer globalization" asked three trade experts what they see for the future of U.S. trade policy. It appears that Mac Destler and Gary Hufbauer were too busy, so unfortunately for their readers I'm one of the experts, along with Susan Aaronson and Kevin Gallagher.
Go check it out -- you can guess my mood about the future.
My basic point:
In a jittery economy, neither Americans nor members of Congress care about how globalization affects the rest of the world. Their primary concern is how imports are destabilizing their jobs and depressing their wages.I should have put "allegedly" somewhere in that sentence, but you get the basic idea. posted by Dan on 10.24.07 at 02:40 PM
The unemployment rate in Flint Michigan is allegedly 17.1%.
Some states are more prosperous because of trade (Virginia, California) some are less prosperous.
Ohio and Michigan have been in recession almost every day since 2001. Both have had record personal bankrupcies and record foreclosures.
Does anyone think the losers are just going to lay down and die? No, they are going to vote.
The GOP probably cannot win without winning either Ohio or Michigan. Both states will likely still be in or near recession at election time. Neither state will forget George Bush, John Snow or Hank Paulson.posted by: save_the_rustbelt on 10.24.07 at 02:40 PM [permalink]
"A Congress that is more protectionist—and more eager to act on that protectionism—than at any time since the end of World War II."
I don't think so.
I think there will be a great deal of chest thumping and loud oration, but not much action. Too many lobbyists with too much money.
If the Democrats control the White House there will be more talk about income inequality and reional economic issues, and perhaps some action.
If the GOP wins the White House I think not much changes until a recession hits the entire country and then the stuff hits the fan.
I do agree there will not be much advance in trade agreements. There may be an attempt to undo the damage from NAFTA.posted by: save_the_rustbelt on 10.24.07 at 02:40 PM [permalink]
Congressional unrest over job losses arising from Chinese imports that produces Congressional reluctance to approve trade agreements with Panama and Colombia is a valid source of discouragement, in more ways than one.posted by: Zathras on 10.24.07 at 02:40 PM [permalink]
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