Unless Romney or Huckabee are elected, the campaign will improve America's standing abroad for a few months. President Bush simply leaving office will improve our standing in the world. His opposition in this country and our adversaries abroad have had 8 years to demonize him. However, voting to improve our standing in the world (which will be short-lived) rather than choosing the best candidate has more negatives than positives.

The upside is that the rest of the world will see a campaign of unknowns play out (aside from the wife of a former President). None of the candidates has yet been demonized internationally and this will help us make a fresh start in the realm of international public opinion.

The downsides are greater. The election of Hillary may give the appearance of nepotism and corruption because she is the wife of a former President. The election of Huckabee will feed into the conspiracy theories about America being on a modern Crusade and favoring Israel on religious grounds. The election of Romney, after he is portrayed as a cult member, will not help much, especially in the Islamic world. I see no glaring concern in terms of our standing abroad among the other viable candidates, other than Obama being seen as a lightweight.

But that is just the initial tone following the election and during the initial honeymoon period following inaugeration. In the broader picture, the character, judgment, and leadership of our next President will be what determines our standing in the world. Hopefully the voters think beyond the "first black" or "first woman" headlines of the Wednesday following election day and focus more on the four-year term that we are voting on. Labeling Romney as a cultist and focusing too heavily on Huckabee's evangelical angle will handicap each candidate from the start. But that does not make the other candidates better choices. I worry more about the inexperience of a guy who was a local politician in Chicago just a few years ago and a women who is arguably a power-hungry sociopath with no credentials. Whatever glowing headline that either could garner after election day will be of little consolation to us four years later if we find ourselves in a Carteresque "malaise."

No, not really.

Elections are common enough outside the USA that us foreigners generally won't be reduced to teary-eyed awe and wonder that the US is having (a very very longlasting) one.

And whilst Obama might stir up some interest as the first black president , using the word 'excitement' for the other 2 is rather overstating it.

Here in Holland people are very interested in the elections. It is amazing, detailed reports on Iowa and New Hampshire even make it to the 8 o clock news.

Yes, I think the elections improve America's image abroad, since we see a black man, a woman and many others campaigning.

But ... the Republicans have a very bad image in Holland, almost no one woukd be willing to support any Republican candidate, with the exception of a few who would support McCain. Mike Huckabee is viewed by many as too conservative, christian, fundamentalist etc. I think the view people have of the Republicans is too simplistic, but this view has been around for a very long time, long before Bush junior, 9/11 and the war on terror. Did Reagan do that?? I don't know.

Dan writes, "Mitt Romney, in contrast, has not gained much from going after either Huckabee or McCain."

Uh . . . Romney is actually in *first* place right now, with 24 delegates to Huckabee's 18 and McCain's 10.

Dear Dan, I am a liberal and a native of SoCal. I know too much of pop culture. I rely upon your blog to bring me some glimpse of the scary reality beyond People magazine. Are you drifting? Please analyze some bonds or something else difficult - quickly. I am begining to understand what you are saying, and that cannot be a good thing.

Just getting rid of Bush will give us a little bump in the world opinion polls.

After that, given the quality of candidates from both parties, prospects are not so good, but someone could rise to beat our expectations.

I had the pleasure of spending election day 2004 in Moscow, at the offices of a client of mine there. One of the employees of this Russian company was a Finnish dude who had his eyes glued to CNN International. He knew county-level Ohio politics better than I did.

It's not really astounding that the entire world is watching to see who will replace Bush. His retirement from office is probably the most eagerly awaited global event since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

I think the campaign process per se simply reflects the anticipation of who will succeed him. The net benefit to American "soft power" can only be measured insomuch as it produces a result that might actually change the course of American policy. Read that as Obama, Clinton or McCain, pretty much in that order.