Wednesday, February 6, 2008

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So you can see why I'm in a good mood today

As near as I can figure, the following people would have to be classified as the "losers" from Super Duper Tuesday:

Ted Kennedy, Patrick Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy, John Kerry, and the African-American "establishment" in the Deep South: so much for the Kennedy's pull with either Massachusetts voters or the Hispanic community [UPDATE: Hmmm... Matt Yglesias makes a convincing case that the endorsements had some pull in Massachusetts.] And so much for the endorsements of the "establishment" African-Americans in the South swaying the black community.

Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and James Dobson: so much for their pull with conservative voters

So it's a Super Wednesday for me.

[Wait, what about bad political prognosticators?--ed.] Oh, I'm always a loser in that category

posted by Dan on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM


As much as I'd like to agree with you that the MA Kennedy clan were the losers, Obama did somehow make up a substantial amount of ground in MA since the endorsement (10-15 points, depending on what polls you look at).

From my copious and serious research (talking to friends and family in MA), Governor Patrick actually seemed to have a bigger negative pull against Obama. Nearly everyone I spoke to said that the voted for Clinton because Patrick has been, in their eyes, a terrible Governor since running a similar campaign to Obama's (poetic rhetoric as a mask for lack of experience). And yes, I'm well aware that the plural of anecdote is not data.

posted by: Carmichael Harold on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]


I'm not sure I get your point about the Deep South. Are you saying the A-A establishment preferred Hillary? Obama won the only two Deep South states in play last night, AL and GA. Or are you considering TN and AR to be Deep South for some reason?

FWIW I loathe Kennedy and the Mass Democratic establishment, but loathe Hillary even more.

posted by: Philip the Equal Opportunity Cynic on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]

Menino's Boston machine probably helped her hold the line, but Hillary's lucky the election wasn't a week later. Either way, I think the numbers show a fairly substantial Kennedy bump (not to be confused with the trademark Colbert Bump).

You could argue a similar line fairly convincingly for Latinos in California -- Obama got a couple late endorsements that helped him eat into Clinton's massive lead here, but it was too little, too late to overcome the huge initial advantage she had along with the support she got from Mayor Villaraigosa and other influential Latino politicians.

posted by: Darren on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]

Well, apparently Super Tuesday turned Obama into the establishment candidate. That is, if you believe Mark Penn:

I think we'll see a lot more attempts by HRC to coopt Obama's message, and it'll be interesting to see how he fends them off.

posted by: Troll on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]

If the primaries are any indicator, roughly a third of Deep South Republicans want McCain. I doubt he has anything in his arsenal that will pry much more than a few dozen Southern Dems from Hillary or Obama. How's McCain gonna pull those states? Having someone to vote against isn't the most reliable vote-getter.

posted by: Alan K. Henderson on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]

As a Democrat, I'm getting increasingly worried. I think both Clinton and Obama have serious deficiencies as candidate--not substantively but in terms of their ability to win in the Fall. Clinton is extremely disliked by large segments of the population and Obama has little experience and seems to rely on soaring rhetoric. Conservatives might not have gotten what they want but they may have gotten what they need. And, let's face it, you can't really discount the race issue on the margins. I think McCain has a good chance to win in November; I'm torn about whether to root for McCain because he isn't as much of a nut as the other Republicans or to root against him because he might win.

posted by: Marc Schneider on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]

It isn't that the far right doesn't have pull with conservatives, but that there aren't really that many conservatives to begin with.

posted by: Lord on 02.06.08 at 08:48 AM [permalink]

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