Dan - Yes, on the three points, but there's also the complicating factor that Putin is probably the key figure for successful repression at this point. Not that he can guarantee its success, but his lack of very active support would probably guarantee its failutre. Which means that I suspect the key diplomacy is going on behind the scenes with Putin. What I'd like to know from you is: what can "we" (USA and/or EU) give Putin to save face and accept a really shameful defeat for him.

Chrenkoff has an interesting post on some potential paranoia going on in Moscow:

http://chrenkoff.blogspot.com/2004/11/conspiracy-mongering-by-kremlins.html

If that's indeed the level and tenor of thinking on the Russian side, I'm not sure there's anything we can offer, or should.

There is actually a fourth possibility--the leadership avoids violence, bides its time and tries to outwait the demonstrators as winter's deep freeze sets in. That is essentially what Kuchma did back during the Gongadze scandal. True, the opposition is more organized this time, and interntional attention and pressure is greater, but Ukrainians hate confrontation and it could just be a matter of who outwaits whom.

That's a sound observation, Quartz. Delay by the Yanukovych forces means time for the weather to wear on demonstrators in Kiev and for efforts to buy off factions supporting Yushchenko. However, the Yushchenko forces seem to have some momentum behind them, and I'm not sure the Yanukovych group can win in the end if they do not have the security forces squarely behind them.

Personally I think it a very good thing for an issue to have arisen on which the American and European governments are pulling in the same direction.

I don't know anything about the Ukraine, outside a 3 day visit to Odessa -- a Russian city -- back in 1996 .

I do know that other peoples elections are none of our business, so it disturbs me to see the OSCE, the EU and the US trying to influence this situation. I have no doubt that the food being brought to the Yushchenko side is being subsidized by US taxpayers. There is a terrific Guardian (UK) piece about this technique of staging rallies to overturn governments that has been developed over the last few years by Western interests.

A simple thought experiment is in order: The exit polls showed John Kerry ahead. Exit polls have been astoundingly accurate over the years in the US. We know about a whole series of irregularities with ballots and voting machines in Ohio, Florida and other places. And we know Republicans tried to surpress democratic turnout. Given all this, if Kerry had decided to bring his followers into the streets, and claim victory, he would have been about as justified as Yushchenko. And lets not talk about last election (2000).

How would we feel if the Russian embassy and intelligence services had offered Kerry support for such demonstrations. (Ironically, given the current security state we have developed, I bet that mass demostrations in Washington would be much more harshly dealt with than the current goings on in Kiev)

Stari,

Ukranian elections were rigged, US elections were not.

...Other peoples elections are none of our business - only if they are fair. That is why international observers are so important. You should compare their accounts for US and for Ukraine.

This terific piece in Guardian you mention - I hope you don't mean J. Steele from Putin-funded Russian Club?

Putting all this bla-bla aside, Ukraine seems to be really split. And opposition folk are not exactly the angels. It is unfortunate, but not surprising, that Russia is playing so dirty it is pushing away the moderates (as I know from my friends in Kiev).