Tuesday, March 29, 2005

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Bill James and I, two peas in a pod

Via David Pinto and Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, I came across an extended interview of Bill James, the godfather of sabremetrics and a consultant to the world champion Boston Red Sox.

Given James's long advocacy of using statistical techniques to gauge the value of baseball players, he provides a surprising response to the question of why Boston was able to overcome it's 0-3 deficit against the Yankees in the American League Championship Series:

Interviewer: I have to ask you this. On an internet baseball fan site, I recently saw you quoted to the effect that veteran leadership had enabled the Red Sox to come back from down 0-3 in the ALCS. But, in that forum, the immediate response was to doubt your sincerity. Bill couldn't mean that! And these were people who held you in high regard. Are you resigned to your reputation at this point in time?

Bill James: Well, believe it or not, I don’t worry about my reputation in that sense. I’ll let that take care of itself.

This is probably a long-winded answer, but I’ll try to explain it this way. If I were in politics and presented myself as a Republican, I would be admired by Democrats by but despised by my fellow Republicans. If I presented myself as a Democrat, I would popular with Republicans but jeered and hooted by the Democrats.

I believe in a universe that is too complex for any of us to really understand. Each of us has an organized way of thinking about the world—a paradigm, if you will—and we need those, of course; you can’t get through the day unless you have some organized way of thinking about the world. But the problem is that the real world is vastly more complicated than the image of it that we carry around in our heads. Many things are real and important that are not explained by our theories—no matter who we are, no matter how intelligent we are.

As in politics we have left and right—neither of which explains the world or explains how to live successfully in the world—in baseball we have the analytical camp and the traditional camp, or the sabermetricians against the scouts, however you want to characterize it. I created a good part of the analytical paradigm that the statistical analysts advocate, and certainly I believe in that paradigm and I advocate it within the Red Sox front office. But at the same time, the real world is too complicated to be explained by that paradigm.

It is one thing to build an analytical paradigm that leaves out leadership, hustle, focus, intensity, courage and self-confidence; it is a very, very different thing to say that leadership, hustle, courage and self-confidence do not exist or do not play a role on real-world baseball teams. The people who think that way. . .not to be rude, but they’re children. They may be 40-year-old children, they may be 70-year-old children, but their thinking is immature. (emphasis added)

James's complete answer is interesting to baseball fans, but I kept returning to that bolded section and unconsciously nodding my head.

posted by Dan on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM




Comments:

Thanks for the link!

posted by: David Pinto on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



That goes for me too...thanks!

posted by: Tom G on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



You know what stinks about being a baseball hater? There's no off-season.

posted by: Mark Buehner on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



--------------------------------
"If I were in politics and presented myself as a Republican, I would
be admired by Democrats by despised by my fellow Republicans.
If I presented myself as a Democrat, I would popular with
Republicans but jeered and hooted by the Democrats."
--------------------------------

Hello? These two sentences are nonsensical; maybe
from bad typing?

Try this:

"If I were in politics and presented myself as a Republican, I would
be admired by Democrats 'BUT' despised by my fellow Republicans.
If I presented myself as a Democrat, I would 'BE' popular with
Republicans but jeered and hooted by the Democrats."

############################
Xiaolin Student: "What great lesson shall we learn
from this today?"

Master Fung: "Nothing."

Xiaolin Student: "oh."

Xiaolin Student: "Any small lessons?"

Master Fung: "Poor communication skills can
make one appear foolish and unknowledgeable."

#################################

posted by: James on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



James seems a bit self-satisfied, esp. in the bolded bits. There are Dems who disagree with standard Democratic positions but are well-liked by the mainstream, while others (thinking Joenertia) hold standard substantive positions but like to give cover to the other side and are widely despised as a result. I'm sure it's the same among reality-based Republicans. As long as one has the courage of one's convictions and stays self-consistent, one will get respect.
James isn't working for the anti-sabermetrists: he has a clear thought-out position and is respected for it, whatever the fringe thinks.

posted by: rilkefan on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



The bold part is fine, but the first sentence of the last paragraph serves as a brilliant endictment of much of American social science, and about 99% of economicists in their role as foreign advisers.

posted by: Angry Moderate on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



There is more to baseball than stats, and Bill James knows it. The bullpen-by-committee approach looks better on paper, and I'd have loved to see that approach succeed just to overturn the status quo. But relievers are people, and people like to know where they stand and what they're expected to do. Which is why bullpens do better when each reliever knows their role (I think it's also why teams that juggle lineups a lot tend to choke in pressure situations). James knows that stats aren't the whole story.

But baseball's statistics are still woefully bad, and thus it's the area James sees with the most room for improvement. One of the reasons closers are woefully misused is because players like having good stats and the save stat sucks ass.

I'm not sure the political comparison was all that apt, since the two camps in baseball are trying to solve the same problems but the two parties have different priorities altogether. But I guess the point is that you shouldn't really care too much about your reputation in either camp (especially in a two-party political system which results in ideologically inconsistent coalitions).

posted by: fling93 on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



Thanks for the link. James is saying, in a long winded noisy way, something stated more succinctly as "Economics is to the economy as physics is to baseball."

posted by: David on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



Generally, "sabermetrics" is the accepted spelling, even though the other version makes more sense.

posted by: Bob Dobalina on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



SABRmetrics (SABR: The Society for American Baseball Research)

posted by: Zevatron on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



to the tune of "if I were a carpenter"

If I were a Democrat
and you were a crazy
would you love me anyway?
would you vote against me?


also works with

If I were Republican
and you were a crazy
would you love me anyway?
would you vote against me?

posted by: David on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]



Zevatron: I acknowledged that the other version makes sense. I know what the SABR is-- I was reading James' Abstracts when I was in diapers.

Nonetheless, sabermetrics is the accepted spelling.

Even by the SABR: http://sabr.org/sabr.cfm?a=cms,c,328

posted by: Bob Dobalina on 03.29.05 at 03:02 PM [permalink]






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