Something to bear in mind is that KN doesn't use telephone polling to get their results; rather, they have a large, randomly-selected panel that are supplied with free WebTV boxes and service in exchange for their participation. (Sort of a half-way house between RDD and what Harris Interactive does.)

The stats I've seen show that its results compare favorably with telephone polling (RDD), and it can do lots of things that telephone polling can't (photo recognition, for example), but it's a caveat worth noting nonetheless. Especially since no poll has shown such a huge Arnold lead (in fact, most show Bustamante in the lead).

I've always thought that Arnold was doing better than most polling suggests for two reasons.

Firstly, most polling doesn't measure voters' intensity very well. The Arnold voter who is mad as hell at Gray Davis is much more likely to turn out to vote than the loyal Democrat who doesn't like the situation the state's in but feels duty-bound to vote "No/Bustamante". The loyal Democrat is much less likely to get up out of his chair and go vote because he doesn't really like Davis.

The other major factor working in Arnold's favor is the way polls break in elections. In most elections, the "undecided" vote breaks against the incumbent by at least a 2 to 1 margin. For this election, Davis and Bustamante can both be considered incumbents.

That's what makes this poll's methodology so interesting -- because it's web-based, there is no "undecided" vote. In my opinion, that is why Arnold's numbers are so much higher in this poll than others we've seen.

I wouldn't put too much credence in this poll, or any other poll for that matter, on the recall. All of the methodologies pollsters usually use to make their polls mirror the voting population aren't really useful for the recall, because they don't really know who is going show up to vote, and the existence of 135 candidates breaks the usual voting patterns. No one knows whether the methodologies the pollsters have to come up with for this recall are any good or not. Since different polls are using different new and untested methodologies, that might explain why they differ from each other so much.

Also, if it's a really close race, the uniqueness of the ballots (in that there's 135 candidates and there's a chance not all the them will show up on the same page) must be considered. By California law the candidates are not listed alphabetically, but listed according to a random drawing, so most voters will have to work through all 135 names to find their candidate. Usually, surprisingly high numbers of people stop voting after the first page, so there will be some people who might write in who they want to vote for if they can't find their candidate's name on the first page. Because of the drawing, Arnold will be listed 6 spots after Bustamente on most ballots, except for 6 districts where Schwarzenegger will be near the top of the list with Bustamente at the bottom. I don't know whether it helps Bustamente or Arnold, but I'm sure some supporters of the loser will be complaining about this after the election.

Not to brag, but I have been blogging pretty much from the outset that Arnold would win this election. I said he would do it in a walk and still believe that is so, particularly if McClintock drops out or wilts. The idea of "specifics" in a political campaign is a paper tiger, particularly in this one where "leadership" is more the issue than policy... and Arnold, in his weird way, promises leadership. That Cruz is not offering much specific on his own is not a surprise. He has long been a dunderhead and a political accident. Here is one of my early links on the subject. There are several...

http://rogerlsimon.com/archives/00000308.htm

"In conjunction with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Knowledge Networks has used its projectable Web-enabled panel to conduct a survey..."

Hoover Institute. Hmmmmm.....

Dear Dan,

Please join with us and bloggers around the world in supporting the Iranian people against a brutal fanatic terrorist clerical regime that continues to support terror and make problems for not only peace but also for American soldiers and others who are trying to assist the Iraqi people!

Join BLOG-IRAN at http://www.activistchat.com/blogiran and help free the Iranian people... LETS BE THE VOICE when everyone else is SILENT!

In Unity & Struggle,
Haleh

Did you attend Williams, Mr. Drezner?